After a down season in 2016 for the Kansas City Royals, Lorenzo Cain got his 2017 campaign off to a good, yet completely unsustainable start.
His .743 OPS, 104 wRC+, and .332 wOBA in April weren't that bad, but his .086 ISO told us his power was nowhere to be found. You know why it was hard for him to hit for much power? Because his quality of contact numbers were down in the dumps. He managed a .339 BABIP, but there was no way that could stand the test of time with a 33.3% soft-hit rate and a 22.2% hard-hit rate.
Thankfully, the outfielder has turned things around, and in a big way. He cut his soft-hit rate in May down to 14.6% to go along with a 32.6% hard-hit rate and has continued this trend with marks of 10.5% and 42.1%, respectively, so far this month.
Not surprisingly, Cain's power has also returned. Improving his quality of contact is obviously a big help, but the changes he's made to the rest of his batted-ball profile doesn't hurt, either. The below table shows how his line-drive rate (LD%), ground-ball rate (GB%), and fly-ball rate (FB%) have varied throughout each month of this season, along with his ISO.
| Month | PA | LD% | GB% | FB% | ISO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 96 | 22.2% | 47.6% | 30.2% | .086 |
| May | 118 | 20.2% | 43.8% | 36.0% | .113 |
| June | 78 | 24.6% | 38.6% | 36.8% | .375 |
This is great timing -- for a couple reasons. Our algorithm only gives Kansas City a 7.5% chance of reaching October at the moment, but they're very much within reach of both the AL Central and one of the two AL Wild Card spots.
And thinking beyond this season, Cain's resurgence is coming at a great time since the 31-year-old will be hitting the free agent market this winter.