Just about everyone thought that when Mike Trout hit the disabled list, the Los Angeles Angels would start to spiral out of control. Well, they haven't and are actually only one game off the pace for an AL Wild Card spot.
The Seattle Mariners are also in the middle of that race, but the Boston Red Sox are the safest bet of this group to make the postseason, according to our metrics.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Chicago White Sox | -0.22 | 32-43 | 1.6% | -2 |
| 19 | Cincinnati Reds | -0.21 | 31-44 | 0.4% | -7 |
| 18 | Atlanta Braves | -0.20 | 36-39 | 5.0% | +2 |
| 17 | New York Mets | -0.18 | 34-41 | 4.3% | +5 |
| 16 | Los Angeles Angels | -0.02 | 41-39 | 20.0% | +3 |
| 15 | Toronto Blue Jays | 0.07 | 36-39 | 17.3% | 0 |
| 14 | Seattle Mariners | 0.13 | 40-39 | 28.1% | 0 |
| 13 | Milwaukee Brewers | 0.15 | 41-37 | 23.1% | +2 |
| 12 | Miami Marlins | 0.16 | 34-40 | 9.8% | -4 |
| 11 | Boston Red Sox | 0.18 | 42-34 | 69.4% | +1 |
Biggest Rise: New York Mets
Well, this doesn't feel right.
The New York Mets are in the midst of a 10-game road trip, and they're currently 3-4 after making a stop in Los Angeles for four games and another in San Francisco for three. However, it's hard to feel optimistic when they swept one of the worst teams in baseball, according to our metrics, while also getting their behinds kicked by the Dodgers.
Offense wasn't really the problem -- they posted a team wRC+ of 136 with a .379 wOBA over the past week. Heck, they even hit four homers off Clayton Kershaw! As you can imagine, though, the pitching was horrendous.
The pitching staff's -0.1 fWAR was the third-lowest mark in the majors during this time, and while a team ERA of 5.65 doesn't look great, it gets even more depressing when their 5.95 FIP tells us they were actually a little fortunate it was only that bad.
If the Mets want any chance at salvaging this season before veteran players get traded away, they need to do two things. First, they have to pitch better -- this is a team built upon what appeared to be a dominant rotation, but that group has produced just a 5.03 ERA and 3.5 fWAR, numbers which are not anywhere close to leading the league.
Second, they need to beat the elite National League teams. Sweeping the Giants over the weekend was great, but the Mets are just 5-19 when facing potential playoff contenders, such as the Washington Nationals, Milwaukee Brewers, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks. Yikes.
Biggest Drop: Cincinnati Reds
This was only a matter of time, right? The Cincinnati Reds have a pretty good offense with guys like Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, and Zack Cozart having solid seasons, but the pitching staff has left a lot to be desired and they're a rebuilding club.
Remember what we just said about the Mets' rotation ERA? They're the second-worst in the NL, only because the Reds' 6.21 ERA is the worst, along with a pitiful -0.9 fWAR, which is also easily the worst in baseball. The bullpen's performance has basically been about average, but it's hard to do anything well when the rotation constantly puts the team in a hole.
Three things are troubling here: Scott Feldman leads the entire staff with a 1.3 fWAR, five of the top-seven fWAR performers on the Reds' staff are relievers, and even the worst qualified pitcher in baseball according to fWAR (Ricky Nolasco at -0.3) is more valuable than Cincy's entire unit of hurlers.