While the group we just dissected experienced some good fortune despite not having all of the peripherals to back it up, these guys shouldn't be playing the lotto anytime soon.
None of the below 10 hitters produced a hard-hit rate below the league average in June. In fact, six of them watched the number in this department climb over 40.0%, and they still weren't able to get results.
| Rank | Player | BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eric Thames | .191 | 15.1% | 39.6% | 45.3% | 35.9% |
| 2 | Carlos Beltran | .197 | 13.3% | 44.0% | 42.7% | 40.0% |
| 3 | Nomar Mazara | .222 | 18.6% | 40.7% | 40.7% | 39.0% |
| 4 | Brandon Belt | .239 | 22.9% | 28.6% | 48.6% | 44.4% |
| 5 | Manny Machado | .243 | 18.9% | 44.6% | 36.5% | 37.3% |
| 6 | Todd Frazier | .258 | 20.0% | 34.3% | 45.7% | 35.7% |
| 7 | Chris Owings | .261 | 20.8% | 34.7% | 44.4% | 40.0% |
| 8 | Matt Carpenter | .264 | 22.4% | 25.0% | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| 9 | Mitch Moreland | .267 | 23.1% | 38.5% | 38.5% | 43.9% |
| 10 | Josh Donaldson | .269 | 23.6% | 40.3% | 36.1% | 44.4% |
Funny Seeing You Here Again
If it seems like we just talked about Todd Frazier and Manny Machado being unlucky the other day, it's because we did.
They were just named as two of the three biggest Statcast underachievers during the 2017 season, so seeing them pop up on this list shouldn't be a shocking development.
Machado is still hitting ground balls more frequently than last year, but with hard-hit rates of 51.5%, 32.1%, 37.3% in each of the first three months this season, he just has to get a break soon, right?
Meanwhile, Frazier is having the opposite problem -- he's getting balls up in the air, but they're not always the right kind. As it currently stands, he's continuing a run of way too many infield pop-ups. He hasn't produced a rate lower than 16.0% since 2014, and he's among the league leaders in this category since 2015.
What More can Matt Do For You?
What's happening to Matt Carpenter just seems like highway robbery.
This dude has managed a 119 wRC+ despite a .150 BABIP with a 50.8% fly-ball rate and 44.2% hard-hit rate for the year. It truly just doesn't make any sense, but his upside for DFS is virtually always tantalizing with numbers like that.
Carpenter has been so productive because he's not letting his tough luck make him get more anxious at the plate. His 17.3% walk rate is on pace to be a career high, and it'd be among the league's elite if he were qualified for the batting title at the moment.
Not An All-Star, But Still Really Good
Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson has been limited to just 142 plate appearances this year due to injury, and recently scoffed at his chances of starting the All-Star game. He's completely right in his opinion about having a legitimate shot at appearing in the midsummer classic, but he's still putting up some saucy numbers.
It also just goes to show you how weird of a game baseball is. Through 35 plate appearances in April, he posted a 170 wRC+ despite a 47.1% ground-ball rate and 29.4% hard-hit rate. But in 110 June plate appearances, his wRC+ was just 120 with the above batted-ball numbers. It just makes you shake your head, but also feel for the opposing pitchers once things tilt in the other direction.