American League: Manny Machado

National League: Travis Shaw

Under normal circumstances, I would hand over the AL honors to Castellanos, your surprise hard-hit rate leader among qualified hitters. He makes a great case for a stellar second half, so definitely keep an eye on him, but Manny Machado stands out as a guy way overdue for some positive regression. It's inexplicable to think that Machado not only wasn't an All-Star, but he's batting just .230. Despite a 40.2% hard-hit rate and 19.7% strikeout rate, he's been plagued by a .239 BABIP, limiting his wOBA to a very un-Machado-like .312. However, his .355 xwOBA shows his true colors. With a robust 43.2% fly-ball rate, look for him to build on his 18 home runs, and expect a decidedly different batting average and wOBA by season's end.

It goes without saying that the Boston Red Sox sure wish they could take that Travis Shaw trade back. While the Red Sox struggle to find their answer at third base, Shaw has been humming along with the Milwaukee Brewers to the tune of a 37.6% hard-hit rate and .272 ISO. That's been good for 19 dingers so far, already a career-high, and he's even dropped his strikeout rate to 21.1%. He's actually hitting fewer fly balls than in years past, so he's unlikely to keep up this home run pace, but overall the future looks bright for the Mayor of Ding Dong City.