Start: July 20th vs. Atlanta Braves
ESPN ownership: 50 percent
Pretty much nothing about Brandon McCarthy is going to catch the eye of a standard-league fantasy owner. He's coming off major injury layoffs, having already pitched more innings in 2017 than he had in his two previous seasons combined. His career strikeout rate is under 18%, and his 7% walk rate on the year marks a seven-year high if you discount last season's injury-shortened sample. Perhaps most glaring for certain age-biased owners, McCarthy is 34 and light on upside.
We're not exactly talking fantasy catnip here, but the Los Angeles Dodgers' righty might be the right kind of streamer to employ if you need a low-variance play this week.
Sure, skeptics can point to the run difference between McCarthy's 4.40 expected fielding independent (xFIP) mark and his 3.48 ERA. But remember that xFIP normalizes home run rate, yet McCarthy appears to be actively suppressing hard contact with the added movement on his cutter, a pitch that has allowed a .013 isolated slugging (ISO) across 371 pitches this season.
That power suppression should come in hand as McCarthy squares off against the Braves, a team that has shown mediocre production against the cutter and really struggles to scratch out power numbers against righties.