Start: July 20th vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
ESPN ownership: 16 percent

As with any hard-throwing prospect with an impressive strikeout rate, Luis Castillo's fantasy bona fide's are probably a little overstated, especially in the current pitching-starved climate. Indeed, while the Cincinnati Reds' youngster has tallied a strikeout rate approaching 30% across his first 29 innings with the big club, that dominance has come with some fairly lackluster control, specifically a 17% walk rate on his fastball. He's only thrown that pitch for a strike 54% of the time, and that, combined with 192 wRC+ allowed, should paint a vivid enough picture: Castillo has a big, unrefined arm, and some regression on that modest 3.41 ERA is surely to come.

But will this be the week? Maybe not, as the Reds send out Castillo to tangle with a Diamondbacks squad whose daunting offense has done most of its damage at home. Check out that .684 team on base plus slugging (OPS) on the road, the fourth-worst away mark in the majors. Clearly the road woes have Arizona pressing, as the team's already glaring 22% strikeout rate at home becomes a 24% mark away from Chase Field.

Castillo is hardly a sure thing, though, as the D-backs show strong walk rate and power numbers against righties on the season at large. Indeed, Castillo is this week's high-variance play -- if you need strikeouts and E-Rod has been scooped up, Castillo's certainly got a chance to put up some crooked numbers here. Some of those numbers might end up in the walk and earned run columns, though, so calibrate your appetite for risk accordingly.