As has been the case for most of the year, the top four teams are pretty set. And based off some of the aggressive moves the Washington Nationals, New York Yankees, and Dodgers made prior to Monday's deadline, it may stay that way for quite a while.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Boston Red Sox | 0.30 | 58-49 | 77.1% | +1 |
| 10 | Seattle Mariners | 0.30 | 54-53 | 35.3% | +4 |
| 9 | St. Louis Cardinals | 0.52 | 52-53 | 30.5% | 0 |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.55 | 54-53 | 33.8% | -1 |
| 7 | Chicago Cubs | 0.67 | 56-48 | 84.7% | +1 |
| 6 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.93 | 60-45 | 90.8% | -1 |
| 5 | Cleveland Indians | 1.23 | 57-47 | 96.4% | +1 |
| 4 | Washington Nationals | 1.27 | 63-41 | 99.8% | 0 |
| 3 | New York Yankees | 1.33 | 57-47 | 92.5% | 0 |
| 2 | Houston Astros | 2.09 | 69-36 | 100.0% | -1 |
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 2.21 | 74-31 | 100.0% | +1 |
Biggest Rise: Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners just keep hanging around. It was rather shocking to see Jerry Dipoto resist making a big splash before Monday's deadline passed, but there apparently wasn't a good enough fit for the organization to pull the trigger. If everyone stays healthy, though, they have the talent on both sides of the ball to make a run at one of the two AL Wild Card spots.
And if they really want to have any shot at reaching the postseason for the first time since 2001, Seattle will need James Paxton to continue pitching like an ace. Over his past 39.1 innings of work (6 starts), he's 6-0 with a 1.37 ERA, 2.79 SIERA, a 31.1% strikeout rate, 4.1% walk rate and a 52.2% ground-ball rate.
There hasn't been a whole lot of positive vibes coming from the rest of the rotation lately, but if Paxton can set the tone, maybe it'll rub off on a few of the others. Maybe.
Biggest Drop: Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays are going all-in for a push toward the playoffs, which is something we don't say very often. Lucas Duda has brought his power over upon getting acquired from the New York Mets, and that's good since their offense has produced a wRC+ better than only the Cincinnati Reds, San Francisco Giants, and Boston Red Sox over the past month.
The pitching staff also hasn't performed very well, and it wouldn't be outrageous to point toward the 1.65 homers they've allowed per nine innings over their most recent 142 frames as one of the main reasons. That's the third-highest mark in baseball since we last checked in, and they'd certainly help their own cause if they induced more ground balls -- their 39.2% ground-ball rate is the fourth-lowest mark during this time.