There's still not a whole lot of movement at the top of the league, but there is at least a little more than last week, so that's something. All but three clubs currently have at least an 88.0% chance of reaching the playoffs, but the bottom part of our top 10 has some intriguing storylines to follow.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.46 | 59-61 | 18.1% | -1 |
| 9 | Boston Red Sox | 0.46 | 67-51 | 97.1% | +1 |
| 8 | St. Louis Cardinals | 0.66 | 61-57 | 51.2% | +1 |
| 7 | Chicago Cubs | 0.74 | 62-55 | 77.7% | 0 |
| 6 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.76 | 66-52 | 91.0% | 0 |
| 5 | Cleveland Indians | 1.13 | 64-52 | 98.3% | 0 |
| 4 | Washington Nationals | 1.20 | 70-46 | 99.9% | 0 |
| 3 | New York Yankees | 1.28 | 62-55 | 88.5% | 0 |
| 2 | Houston Astros | 1.77 | 72-46 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 2.20 | 83-34 | 100.0% | 0 |
Biggest Rise: St. Louis Cardinals
Talk about a wild ride, right?
The St. Louis Cardinals have enjoyed streaks that have gotten them over .500 at certain points this season, but endured others that sunk them below that particular benchmark on multiple occasions. However, their nERD has been rather consistent when compared to the rest of the league -- they haven't fallen out of the top 10 since they ranked 16th back on May 2nd.
And now they're on one of those hot streaks, winning 8 of their last 10 games to pull within 1.5 games of the division lead, along with being just 5.0 games off the pace in the Wild Card race.
One player who has been critical this year didn't even start 2017 on the big league roster. With the early-season struggles from Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty, Tommy Pham earned a shot to stick with St. Louis, and he's more than proved himself worthy of doing just that. Through 368 plate appearances, he's slashing .309/.401/.494 with 14 home runs and 16 stolen bases, basically cementing himself in the second spot of St. Louis' lineup.
Biggest Drop: Tampa Bay Rays
Not too long ago, we were talking about how the Tampa Bay Rays were going all-in for a playoff push based off how active they were at the trade deadline. It was notable because it hasn't happened all that often, but they've seemingly been sputtering ever since.
Manager Kevin Cash has watched his team lose their last four games, along with going just 2-8 over the past 10. At 59-61, the Rays are now 2.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot, which isn't far off the pace, but things would be a lot different if they hadn't experienced such poor results recently.
The pitching hasn't been the problem, either -- over the last two weeks, the staff's collective fWAR of 1.7 is the fourth-highest in baseball, and while their 3.16 team ERA is also fourth-best, they've gone just 2-7 during that time. So, if you've deduced that the offense has been the culprit here, you're right -- their team wRC+ of 56 in the last 14 days is dead last in baseball.