Thanks to having a second wild-card spot in play for each league, a handful of the teams below have at least a halfway decent shot at winning a trip to October. For the others? Well, they're probably already making some vacation plans for the offseason.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | New York Mets | -0.31 | 63-80 | 0.0% | -1 |
| 19 | Cincinnati Reds | -0.31 | 61-80 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 18 | Baltimore Orioles | -0.27 | 71-69 | 2.6% | +3 |
| 17 | Los Angeles Angels | -0.14 | 73-70 | 20.1% | -2 |
| 16 | Minnesota Twins | 0.00 | 73-67 | 51.0% | 0 |
| 15 | Texas Rangers | 0.01 | 72-71 | 13.1% | +2 |
| 14 | Miami Marlins | 0.02 | 68-75 | 0.1% | -3 |
| 13 | Milwaukee Brewers | 0.07 | 75-69 | 15.4% | +1 |
| 11 | Seattle Mariners | 0.21 | 71-73 | 4.5% | +1 |
| 11 | Oakland Athletics | 0.21 | 63-80 | 0.0% | +2 |
Biggest Rise: Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles enter action on Tuesday just 3.5 games off the pace for a wild-card berth, and that in itself is incredibly impressive considering how bad their starting rotation has been this year. The performance of this group over the past two weeks is the perfect example of that.
Baltimore's rotation has a 1-8 record with a 6.29 ERA during this period of time, and while the peripheral stats tell a more pleasant story, it's not like a 5.04 xFIP is particularly awesome, either. It doesn't help that Jeremy Hellickson -- their trade-deadline acquisition that was supposed to help eat up innings -- isn't performing all that great.
Hellickson's last three starts have been especially terrible, too. He's lasted just 13 total innings while posting a 9.00 ERA and walking just about twice as many hitters (13.1%) as he's striking out (6.6%).
Biggest Drop: Miami Marlins
After a sluggish start to 2017, the Miami Marlins rode Giancarlo Stanton's hot streak all the way back into postseason contention. However, they have cooled off significantly once everyone started noticing them, and our metrics give them virtually no shot at reaching October.
The pitching staff hasn't exactly been stellar for Miami since we last checked in around the league, but the offense hasn't been doing them no favors -- their 74 wRC+ during this period of time is one of the worst in baseball. And for all the crazy numbers Stanton put up in August, he's managed just a 75 wRC+ over his last 57 plate appearances, which includes 4 homers and 5 RBI.