Preseason Average Draft Position (ADP): 55.78
Catcher is typically a top-heavy position when it comes to fantasy baseball, and this year was no different. The elite options in 2017 were Buster Posey and Gary Sanchez, who were typically the first two off the board, according to NFBC data. However, Jonathan Lucroy found himself as the third catcher getting selected, ahead of guys like Willson Contreras, Jacob Realmuto, and Salvador Perez.
And by looking at his situation heading into 2017, it made sense. He posted a 123 wRC+ with a .362 wOBA through 544 plate appearances, which also included a career-high 24 home runs. He was already in the midst of a great year with the Milwaukee Brewers, but his wRC+ (120 to 130), ISO (.183 to .263), and OPS (.841 to .885) all took a jump once he joined the Texas Rangers.
A full year in a solid lineup and a ballpark conducive to offense? Yes, please. It just didn't end up that way.
Through 481 plate appearances this year, Lucroy posted an 82 wRC+ with a .311 wOBA and just a .106 ISO. He was more productive after getting acquired by the Colorado Rockies, but it's not like he just returned to being the Lucroy of old.
The most concerning part about this all was his batted-ball profile, which drastically changed between 2016 and 2017. The below table compares his line-drive rate (LD%), ground-ball rate (GB%), fly-ball rate (FB%), and hard-hit rate (Hard%) between the two seasons.
| Year | LD% | GB% | FB% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 24.2% | 37.2% | 38.7% | 35.4% |
| 2017 | 18.6% | 53.5% | 27.9% | 22.3% |
Unless he has an unbelievable run in the postseason, his draft stock will see a huge drop prior to 2018.