ADP: 236.35

Texas Rangers starter Cole Hamels has been a ridiculously consistent pitcher throughout his career. Since becoming a regular starter in 2007, Hamels had a 3.26 ERA and an 8.5 K/9 with an ERA+ of 125 and a FIP of 3.50 through 2016. That's 1,977 strikeouts in 2,082 innings of work. Only once did his ERA rise above 3.65 (a 4.32 mark in 2009), and he had posted an ERA under 3.40 in six of those 10 seasons, making at least 30 starts every year since 2008.

But last year, Hamels missed eight weeks of his age-33 season to an oblique injury, and when he did pitch, he put up an ERA of 4.20, his highest since that 2009 season. His 4.62 FIP was worse than that year, when it was still a healthy 3.83. His K/9 dropped from his career average of 8.48 to 6.39, and his strikeout rate fell from 23.0% to 17.1%. He also gave up a hard-hit rate (according to FanGraphs) of 36.0% last season, the highest of his career, while generating soft contact just 13.7% of the time, the lowest of his career.

The good news is that his velocity didn't drop (92.0 mph last season), and he's mainly a fastball-changeup pitcher, a combination that generally ages well. He was really good two years ago and was possibly pitching through pain last season, so a rebound is certainly a strong possibility.