Last year was an incredible rookie campaign for Aaron Judge, with an American League-best 52 home runs, a slash line of .284/.422/.627, 114 RBIs and 128 runs scored.

While Judge clearly has incredible power and does hit in a homer-happy ballpark in Yankee Stadium, it's going to be hard for him to replicate his rookie-year numbers.

He had shoulder surgery in the offseason, which is never a good thing, and it's possible he could miss time should that injury flare up again. Pitchers should now have a better idea how to pitch him, although with Judge, that may not matter a whole lot, and he does strike out a ton (30.7% strikeout rate last season).

Still, the odds of Judge hitting more than 50 homers again are extremely small. Even 45 home runs seems like a lot. Our projections see him getting to 40, but no more than that. That may feel like an underperforming season, but it's more likely Judge's rookie campaign will be the high-water mark of his career.