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In what appeared to be a dream Opening Day matchup against the hapless Miami Marlins, Jon Lester struggled, failing to make it out of the fourth inning. Lester couldn't hone his command, walking more batters than he struck out.

But the biggest story is not Lester's command -- it's his velocity. According to Fangraphs, his velocity was significantly down from last season. For those who may dismiss this as just a byproduct of one start, his fastball velocity has been trending down for a while.

This shows up in the metrics. The pitch value of his fastball, according to Fangraphs, had been at least 6.0 from 2013 to 2016. In 2017, that mark not only dipped below 6.0, it crashed to -9.7 as he lost a tick or two on his heater. Declining velocity is likely a reason Lester struggled last year, and it doesn't look as if he's fixed the problem.

In a tough matchup at the Milwaukee Brewers, Lester is tough to trust, even on tonight's four-game slate.