Price: $9,100
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the day's biggest favorites by a wide margin (-247 moneyline), and accordingly, the Miami Marlins' implied total sits at an ugly 3.14.
The Dodgers are starting right-handed pitcher Kenta Maeda, and Miami has been egregious against righties to open 2018. Their 27.8% hard-hit rate in the split is the third-lowest in the majors, their 24.1% soft-hit rate is the second-highest, their 24.8% strikeout rate is the seventh-highest, and their 68 wRC+ is the fourth-lowest. Not many teams manage to put up awful numbers in such a wide array of categories.
Of course, Maeda brings a lot to the table himself. Four games into his third season, his career skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) sits at a solid 3.67, while his 25.6% strikeout rate is a strong mark.
Maeda has been especially deadly in 2018 so far with a 2.51 SIERA and 34.8% strikeout rate. Four games is a small sample size, but that jump in strikeout rate has been accompanied by a big jump in swinging-strike rate (12.5% to 15.1%). Swinging-strike rate does stabilize more quickly than strikeout rate, and he's also dealing the highest velocity numbers of his career -- two good indicators that he could be in for a new career high in strikeout rate this season.