Price: $12,200

It doesn't come as much of a surprise when Max Scherzer is pitching, but the Washington Nationals are Thursday's biggest favorites by a big margin (with a huge -292 moneyline), which leaves the Baltimore Orioles with the day's lowest implied total. Their 2.65-run mark is more than half a run lower than anyone else's today.

Scherzer's 2.19 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) ranks way ahead of any other pitcher on the slate (the next-best is 2.95), while also sitting as the best mark among all qualifying pitchers this season.We see a similar pattern with his 39.0% strikeout rate. The next-highest among pitchers in action today is a 31.2% clip, while the second-ranked mark among all qualifying pitchers is 36.1%.

The Orioles make for a particularly good matchup for Scherzer as well. They rank only 28th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, while their 24.9% strikeout rate against righties is the 6th-highest in the Majors. Scherzer stands well ahead of the crowd as Thursday's top pitcher.