Price: $4,500

Philadelphia's Vince Velasquez has been pitching much better than his 4.82 ERA may lead you to believe, but there's still some room for optimism in this matchup. Velasquez's contact numbers have improved from what he allowed in 2017, but his 32.9% hard-hit rate and 42.2% fly-ball rate aren't exactly marks we want to shy away from. He is allowing a particularly concerning 44.1% hard-hit rate over four starts in June.

This leaves the New York Yankees with a reasonable 4.58 implied total -- not a huge mark but also not one that suggests they are unlikely to get shut down.

Aaron Judge isn't a guy who needs an ideal spot to offer massive fantasy upside. Judge has tagged right-handed pitchers for a .413 wOBA and .296 isolated slugging (ISO) on a 49.2% hard-hit rate this season. Expanding our sample to his 761 plate appearances against righties over the last two years, he has a 46.4% hard-hit and 39.8% fly-ball rate, which has translated to a .432 wOBA and .342 ISO.