Price: $4,400
With Stephen Strasburg landing on the disabled list, we simply don't have a stud pitching option on Thursday's main slate. The only other pitcher priced above $8,500 is Rich Hill, who isn't an especially strong play. So if you're spending up tonight, you're going to want it to be for the big hitters.
The New York Yankees have a big 5.75 implied total tonight as they take on right-hander Jake Junis and the Kansas City Royals.
Junis is 18 games into his second Major League campaign, and his 4.13 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) this season brings his career-average to a shaky 4.30. He's also allowing hitters to make much better contact than he did last season, with his 41.7% hard-hit rate and 42.1% fly-ball rate both sitting above his 2017 marks, while his 15.9% soft-hit rate represents a slight drop from his 16.9% in 2017.
Aaron Judge should have no issues taking advantage of a spot like this. In 2018, he has tagged right-handed pitching for a 48.3% hard-hit and 13.5% soft-hit rate, which has translated to a .397 wOBA and .262 isolated slugging (ISO).
Royals relievers also have the highest xFIP in the Majors. If Junis gets the hook early, the matchups shouldn't get much tougher for Judge, who has also crushed lefties this year, with a .409 wOBA and .271 ISO in the split.