Colorado Rockies National League Pennant Odds: +330

Milwaukee Brewers National League Pennant Odds: +240

The road to the National League pennant goes through Milwaukee. There's something we didn't expect to be saying at the beginning of the year, but we're here for what should be a tightly contested series.

The visiting and underdog Colorado Rockies rank just 19th in nERD (-0.18) and 13th in BaseRuns in 2018. The Milwaukee Brewers finished eighth, with a 0.86 nERD, and they ended the year ninth in BaseRuns at 98.

It isn't easy pitching half your games in Coors Field, but the Rockies did a solid job this season. They finished the year 13th in baseball with a 3.98 SIERA. Meanwhile, the Brewers finished 14th with a 4.00 SIERA.

Believe it or not, Colorado was a pitching-oriented team this year, as Coors Field masked some of Colorado's offensive struggles. While they posted a 97 wRC+ at home, they finished just 25th overall with a 87 wRC+. By contrast, the Brew Crew ranked 13th with a 99 wRC+ as their 38.5% hard-hit rate ranked fifth-best in baseball.

With a slightly above average pitching staff and an atrocious offense, Colorado is arguably the least deserving of the eight remaining postseason teams. Meanwhile, despite finishing with the best record in the National league, the metrics indicate that Milwaukee was barely a top-10 team all year. Whoever emerges from this series will be the weaker team, but the Brewers have a decided advantage. Taking them as -140 favorites is a much better bet than the Rockies at +120.

Recommended Bet: Milwaukee -140 for the series, then against Milwaukee if they reach the NLCS.