NFBC ADP: 64th
Starting Pitcher (SP) Rank: 19
Draft Round (12-team league): 6th

After nearly leading the St. Louis Cardinals to a Wild Card berth with a 3.34 ERA and 3.57 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) over 155 innings in his rookie season, including a 29.6% strikeout rate, early draft data shows that most are betting on an impressive second season from Jack Flaherty.

Not so fast, my friends.

The right-hander has repeatedly showcased command issues in the past, and over those innings in 2018, it's hard to ignore Flaherty's 9.6% walk rate, 36.1% hard-hit rate and 36.8% fly-ball rate. Free passes with numbers like those can spell a disaster, and Flaherty was luckily that his ERA wasn't significantly higher thanks to a 79.1% strand rate (compared to a 72.6% average strand rate for starters in 2018).

Priced as an SP2 with some major regression on the horizon, Flaherty may need to curb that walk rate to maintain his 2018 success.