ADP: 125
Steamer: 180 IP, 165 K, 11 W, 4.05 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
THE BAT: 180 IP, 157 K, 12 W, 3.71 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Carlos Martinez may have produced a 3.11 ERA last season, but it was actually a tumultuous campaign, with multiple DL stints holding him to just 118 2/3 innings. The injuries ultimately led him to finishing the year as the Cardinals' closer, and while he's expected to return to the rotation, the team hasn't ruled out using him in the bullpen again this year.

While that latter bit of news is an added wrinkle that will require monitoring this spring, if we assume Martinez is a starter again, this could be an intriguing buy-low opportunity on someone many considered a borderline ace entering last year.

Despite that fantastic ERA, the truth is it masked declines practically across the board for Martinez. He saw a dips in both strikeout rate (22.5%) and velocity while also posting career-worst clips in SIERA (4.45), walk rate (11.5%), and ground-ball rate (49.1%). Martinez also got lucky with an abnormally low 4.9% HR/FB rate, likely explaining some of the ERA discrepancy.

But when factoring in all the injuries, Martinez arguably deserves a pass on last year. Over the prior three seasons, he averaged 193 1/3 innings with a 3.24 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 192 strikeouts -- all supported by a solid 3.74 SIERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate, and 54.0% ground-ball rate.

Martinez has never quite taken that next step many have hoped for, and last year's injury-plagued campaign makes him tougher to peg than ever before. Even so, he's delivered excellent production before and is still just 27 years old. The bullpen talk bears watching, but when you can get a guy of this talent level outside the top 100, maybe you just go get him and let the chips fall where they may.