While there may have been a time when deGrom was overshadowed by fellow Mets pitching prospects according to Baseball Prospectus.
The projections apparently don’t buy the strikeout rate, given he averaged 7.4 strikeouts in four minor league seasons. Using the swinging strike statistics, though, you could make a compelling case deGrom’s uptick in strikeouts last year was no fluke, so he might be able to out-produce the projections.
| Model | IP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | WAR/WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| numberFire | 189.2 | 3.55 | 7.5 | 2.4 | X |
| Steamer | 164 | 3.76 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| ZiPS | 174.3 | 3.3 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| PECOTA | 156 | 3.53 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 |