After taking the league by storm, Tanaka’s season came to a halt in early July, when an elbow injury kept him sidelined him for most of the year. Opting for rest rather than surgery, Tanaka returned to make a pair of late-September starts.

Prior to his trip to the disabled list, Tanaka was not only a Rookie of the Year candidate but also a Cy Young contender. The Japanese righty proved to be worth his seven-year, $155 million contract, posting a 2.77 ERA, 71 ERA-, 78 FIP- and 68 xFIP-. He struck out 26% of the batters he faced and 9.3 per nine innings, while walking just 3.9% (1.4 per nine).

While the projections naturally expect some regression, for the most part, they are believers.