Despite coming into the season as our number-two team, the Nationals are currently the 16th-best team in our standings -- but still the best squad in the National League East. They still have a 78.8% chance to win the division and still have the third-best chance to win the championship at 8.8%, right behind the St. Louis Cardinals (14.2%).

The American League East is going to be a literal fight to the finish. Three teams are currently in our top 10 -- the Jays (third), Yankees (eighth), and Orioles (ninth). The Rays are 12th. All teams have at least a 40.8% chance to make the playoffs and only 7.9% separates the teams' chances to capture the division title.

The Jays have the highest nERD (0.92) of the four teams currently, doubling up the Orioles (0.41) and Yankees (0.42), and are actually a game behind in the division standings. Fan of the Red Sox? They are six games back and have a 2.0% chance to win the division.