I almost gave this spot to Zack Greinke given his matchup with the Padres' putrid offense tonight, but Greinke just isn't right yet. Or, at least, the start to his season has been pretty bad.

It's nearly impossible for DFS players to differentiate a hot streak from random noise, so whether a hitter is on a hot streak or mired in a slump, we can generally project them to regress to their averages in future games.

But for pitchers, recent form can help predict the next performance. In other words, there's little reason to pay up for Greinke when Carlos Martinez has performed better thus far and is in an equally great matchup with Vegas on his side.

Martinez is a -180 favorite in Vegas, the highest favorite on the board in main slate. As was mentioned in this article on Wednesday, wins are key for pitchers in FanDuel's scoring system.

Last season, Martinez held right-handed hitters to a .085 ISO and struck them out 26.9 percent of the time. This doesn't bode well for Reds' right-handed bats. And if Adam Duvall gets the start over Scott Schebler, you can probably add another two strikeouts to Martinez's projection.