FanDuel Price: $11,000

It’s been a weird year for Jon Lester. He’s suffered from a four-year high in home run-to-fly ball rate of 13.8 percent, but he’s posted a 1.58 ERA due to a complete anomaly of a strand rate at 96.2 percent. And despite a three-year low strikeouts per nine innings rate of 8.55, he’s flashed his strikeout potential with two 10-strikeout games this season.

Another reason for his low ERA is his opponents’ low hard hit rate. At just 24.3 percent, he’s holding opposing hitters nearly two points below his career average.

Tonight, Lester will face the Padres, which is the perfect opportunity to see another 10-plus strikeout performance. The Padres are 29th in strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers at 26.2 percent, and when they do put the bat on the ball, they’ve sustained only a 29.8 percent fly ball rate.

Unsurprisingly, a Cubs pitcher is a huge Vegas favorite again. Lester is -245 tonight, giving him an excellent chance to pick up a win to go with his high projected strikeout total.