FanDuel Price: $10,300
After posting a microscopic 1.66 ERA last year, Zack Greinke is sporting a 4.29 ERA in his first 77 2/3 innings with the Diamondbacks. The thing is, he’s barely pitching any worse.
Take a look:
| Greinke | K% | BB% | LOB% | BABIP | SIERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23.7% | 4.7% | 86.5% | 0.229 | 3.27 |
| 2016 | 22.0% | 4.3% | 70.7% | 0.319 | 3.52 |
The big culprits here are Greinke’s strand rate (LOB%) and batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which were at unsustainably lucky levels in 2015. Each has actually overcorrected to clips worse than his career averages, so he may be due for some positive regression over the remainder of the season.
Greinke, a righty, gets a solid matchup tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa Bay has been a free-swinging squad in 2016, ranking 28th in strikeout rate (25.2%) and 17th in walk rate (8.1%). The Rays check in 25th with a .302 on-base percentage against right-handers. Our top-ranked pitcher for Tuesday, Greinke is coming off his best start of the season. He fanned 11 without issuing a walk over six scoreless innings against the Houston Astros in his last outing.