After starting his career with two very good seasons, posting a SIERA under 3.70 in both 2013 and 2014, Julio Teheran struggled to a 4.24 SIERA last year. The reason for the fall was career-worst marks in strikeout rate (20.3%) and walk rate (8.7%), which is exactly how you post a career-worst season.
This year, Teheran has been better across the board.
| Year | Innings | ERA | SIERA | Strikeout Rate | Walk Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 200 2.3 | 4.04 | 4.24 | 20.3% | 8.7% |
| 2016 | 118 2/3 | 2.96 | 3.85 | 22.8% | 5.3% |
While this season's numbers are good -- and certainly better than what he produced in 2015 -- there are some negatives.
Teheran is actually allowing a career-high 35.3% hard-hit rate, but despite that, he still owns a career-low .235 BABIP, meaning he's definitely benefiting from some good fortune. His 9.9% swinging-strike rate is his worst clip in the past three seasons and will make it hard for him to maintain his current strikeout rate. Teheran also has the 14th-highest strand rate at 80.1%.
As a young pitcher with a solid pedigree, Teheran is a hot commodity in both real and fantasy baseball. Due for some second-half regression, you could probably get a nice return if you dangle the 58th-ranked player in Yahoo standard leagues.