FanDuel Price: $4,300
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Nolan Arenado and the Rockies have a low implied team total again today against Chris Tillman, who is one of the more well-respected pitchers on the slate. With top options Josh Donaldson, Kris Bryant, and Manny Machado all in better on-paper matchups, Arenado likely won't be an overly popular option.
Why You Should Use Him:
Arenado homered again last night and now has three homers and five extra-base hits in his last four games. He is one of the best hitters in the game and is heating up in time for tonight's matchup against Tillman, who has a respectable 3.18 ERA on the year.
Tillman's 4.46 SIERA suggests that he is pitching over his head, though. He is a career 4.07 pitcher, who posted a 4.99 ERA last season. Tillman has also struggled with righties in his career, posting a career 4.38 xFIP against them, which is nearly identical to his mark against lefties. Righties have also posted a higher slugging percentage, wOBA, and hard-hit rate against him in his career.
Arenado has actually hit right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching in his career, posting a higher ISO, slugging percentage, and hard-hit rate.
Tillman has pitched well enough to limit exposure to the Colorado offense as a whole in cash formats, but in tournaments, Arenado is a very intriguing option.