MLB
Cincinnati Reds Season Preview: So Long, Dusty
With Dusty Baker out of the picture, are the Reds ready to take the next step?

Dusty Baker is no longer the Reds' skipper. The city of Cincinnati couldn’t be happier.

Sure, Dusty managed the Reds to a 509-463 record during his time. And yes, the team made three playoff appearances under the toothpick chewer, too.

But Baker’s leadership and in-game management left a lot to be desired. The feeling you got with Dusty Baker is kind of the same one you get when you purchase a new Madden game: there are roster overhauls, but it’s the same old game, every single time.

The Reds booted Baker after the team lost to the Pirates in NL’s one-game wild-card playoff, later hiring Bryan Price to lead the team in 2014.

Hiring Price brings inexperience to the Reds, sure, but it also brings a new energy to a Cincinnati clubhouse that’s led by a Canadian-born baseball star with the personality of a brick wall. The Reds needed a change.

The changes didn’t stop there though. The team lost leadoff hitter and center fielder both singing and pitching – to the desert.

It’s a new-look Reds team in 2014, and one that will be competing in the same division as two other playoff teams from a season ago. Are they ready to finally make a run in the National League?

Billy the Kid

The loss of Shin-Soo Choo can’t be overstated for Cincinnati, though his presence in the lineup was only felt for a single season as he played just one year with the Reds. He ended 2013 with a .423 on-base percentage in the leadoff spot, ranking seventh in the NL in wOBA.

Though Dusty Baker had no idea how to maximize his lineup’s output last year (explain to me why he got really mad at a Cincinnati Enquirer reporter.

Oh, but he did set a career high in RBI, getting over the century mark for his first time.

It’s obvious that Phillips will need to turn things around in order for this lineup to produce, especially when you consider he won’t have the luxury of seeing his leadoff man get on base as often as last season. His RBI total will probably decrease, but hopefully Phillips’ slightly low BABIP will increase enough for him to be a reliable bat again.

I’ll go to the good now, and make the obligatory reference to how incredible Joey Votto is at baseball. His plate discipline is through-the-roof good, as he saw his second consecutive season with a walk rate above 18.5%. If there was one knock on Votto from last season it was his power, as he hit just 24 dingers with an ISO of under .200. That’s the first time his power has been that low since entering Major League Baseball.

But he’ll be fine, and he’s the one Red that will easily survive the Choo loss. It’ll be another year of line drives and no infield fly balls for the Canadian.

balls dropped on the pitchers mound while hearing a "Cueto" chant from a Pittsburgh crowd (I'm sorry, the Pirate fan in me had to do it).

Let's talk about the fun pitchers now, Tony Cingrani and Aroldis Chapman. Cingrani will more than likely be the team's number four or five guy in the rotation, but has a ton of potential in his second year. He posted a spectacular 10.32 K/9 a season ago, but as many know, he relies heavily on his fastball - things could go bad quickly if he doesn't change things up on the mound.

Chapman will be the team's primary closer, though a ton of folks are still wishing the Reds would use him in the rotation. But assuming he's closing, he should be dominant again. He and the Reds bullpen boasted the third-best K/9 last year, as well as the seventh-best ERA. Though regression could be lurking, as their FIP ranked 21st.

One positive for Chapman is that he'll (hopefully) be used not just in relation to the save rule, as Dusty Baker loved to only throw him on the mound in save situations. We all know he can throw heat, but the biggest story with him this year will simply be his use under Bryan Price.

The Reds pitching staff took a slight hit with the departure of Bronson Arroyo, but they should still be a solid bunch in 2014. If there’s one word to describe the group this year, it’s probably “upside”.

But with upside comes risk. The team has inexperience with young (potential) stud Tony Cingrani, and they took a potential gamble with their big contract to Homer Bailey. Johnny Cueto, too, will have to stay healthy for the majority of the season to maximize the rotation's abilities.

Prospects

According to Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects list, the Reds own one top-20 guy and the aforementioned Billy Hamilton. That's it.

The "one guy" is starting pitcher Robert Stephenson, who is actually close to being MLB-ready. The Reds have had a lot of success of late in terms of homegrown pitching prospects (Bailey, Cingrani, Cueto), so having an upside back-pocket pitcher for a potentially risky group could be a good thing for the Reds.

Stephenson had a sub-3.00 ERA in the minors last year, snagging a nice 10.71 K/9 ratio. If the Reds are in the hunt late in the season, it wouldn't be surprising if Stephenson got a shot.

Will the Reds Win the Central?

Probably not - that's my answer to whether or not the Reds will win the division. They really didn't gain anything over the offseason, aside from a new manager, while they lost a key bat and a moderately good pitcher. Considering the Cardinals will be battling it out with them for the NL Central crown (along with the Pirates, of course), I'd have a hard time dubbing the Reds as early favorites for the division title.

However, that doesn't mean the team can't compete for a wild-card berth. If Billy Hamilton makes strides while Brandon Phillips turns things around, the lineup should be alright. Especially when you consider Ryan Ludwick will be back and healthy, a key the Reds didn't really have a season ago.

The rotation, too, has plenty of potential. Cueto's proven to be a stud, Latos is a consistent piece, and Aroldis Chapman can dominate late innings like it's nobody's business. The loss of Arroyo will mean more pressure is put on some of the younger players, but if Homer Bailey lives up to his contract, the Reds should be in fine shape from a pitching perspective.

It's kind of a new era in Cincinnati. While it's doubtful that this is their year, I'm sure fans are excited about the team's future under Price. At least they're not heading into the season knowing their ceiling, as they often times did under Dusty Baker.

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