Note: All numbers compiled before last night's slate of games.

Although he has a two-game head start, Three True Outcomes player and Trumbo has only walked on 6.2% of plate appearances in his career. Really, the three biggest similarities between the two players is that they strike out often, are terrible defenders, and can hit for power. However, Dunn is a rare type of player and is much more durable than Trumbo.

This season, Trumbo has struck out on 24.6% of his plate appearances, which is roughly in line with his three-year average. While his 2014 walk rate of 5.8% looks like a decrease from his three-year average of 6.8%, we have to remember that we are dealing with small sample sizes; add one more walk to his total and it increases his rate to 7.2%. Essentially, Trumbo is striking out and walking about as often as he has in the past. Looking at PITCHf/x data, his chase rate and contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone are also on par with career numbers.

Based on the data observed, I have no reason to believe that if there is a change in Trumbo’s skill level, that it has been caused by a change in plate discipline.

Batted Ball Data

In order to hit home runs, batters must hit fly balls. To me, Trumbo doesn’t seem like the type of player who can hit inside-the-park-homers on ground balls. Two of the leaders in fly ball percentage are here.

For example, Player A might go 1 for 4 with three groundouts and a home run in each of his first two games. This would give the player a HR/FB of 100%. If Player B goes 1-4 with three fly outs and a home run, he would have a HR/FB of 25%. Although 25% is still very high and we need more context before reaching a final conclusion, Player B is more likely to sustain his rate, mostly because it is unreasonable to expect Player A to homer on every fly ball.

According to FanGraphs, the league average HR/FB is about 9.5%. From 2011-2013, Trumbo’s HF/FB was 19.8%, good for 13th in MLB over the interval. This season, Trumbo has converted 6 of 15 fly balls into home runs, meaning he has a 40% HF/FB. In 2003, Barry Bonds hit 73 home runs with a HR/FB of 29.6%. It's a safe assumption that Trumbo’s end-of-season HR/FB will be closer to 19.8% than 40%.

It seems reasonable that Trumbo’s 2014 home run total may have been fluky thus far. As a side note, the .219 batting average should move north for summer once the .195 BABIP regresses.

Home Run Data

One positive aspect of Trumbo’s move to Arizona is that he moved to Chase Field, a hitter’s park, from Angel Stadium, a pitcher’s park. It makes sense that a home-run hitter could hit more home runs if his environment improved. However, I used ESPN’s home run tracker to analyze the distances of Trumbo’s home runs, and noticed that four of the blasts carry question marks.

The first one was Trumbo’s first 2014 homer, off Kenley Jansen on March 22 in Australia. It only traveled 347 feet to straightaway left and would not have been a home run in any MLB park.

Of the five other round-trippers he's hit this season, three of them were at the hitter’s paradise known as Coors Field. Trumbo homered in all three games in the series, which definitely makes me curious as to what he could do in 81 games there. Unfortunately, Trumbo only has 10 more games this season against the Rockies at Coors. While it seems unfair to penalize Trumbo for his good performances at Coors, it's also unreasonable to make predictions off five series, one of which was played in the park most suited to right-handed power hitters.

Should you assume Trumbo’s four question-marked homers went as fly outs instead, his HR/FB would be 13.3%. If we estimated 600 at-bats over the season minus the 64 he has already, then subtracted predicted strikeouts, we would estimate Trumbo putting 408 balls in play. For this exercise, we will assume Trumbo’s fly ball rate stays at this year’s 31.9% instead of his career 38%. He would have 130 fly balls. Assuming his conservative 13.3% HF/FB sticks, we would predict 17.35 home runs over the remainder of the season. For a conservative estimate, Trumbo still looks to be an above-average contributor in the category.

Verdict

Based on the data, Trumbo’s home run numbers appear to be the result of a fluke, and he'll have trouble sustaining close to this pace throughout an entire season. And that's not even accounting for Trumbo’s reputation as a guy who tends to break down during the second half of seasons, something he's done in each of the past three years. This could be your best chance to sell high on a guy whose surface stats are due to decline soon.