Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Using the odds available at Bovada Sportsbook, here are three prop bets available tonight that are good plays based on our daily MLB game projections.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Domingo German OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Domingo German hasn't been very consistent in his time in the New York Yankees' starting rotation this season, but he has definitely been able to strike out opposing hitters. German is averaging 10.08 strikeouts per 9 innings, and he has posted 6 or more strikeouts in 4 of his 6 starts.
German owns an impressive 26.1% strikeout rate this season, and as a starter he is holding his opponents to a .216 batting average. Our models project him for 6.21 strikeouts over 5.83 innings of work tonight.
New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks
Matt Koch OVER 3 Strikeouts (-135)
Matt Koch isn't a strikeout machine, but Bovada might be a little too generous on Thursday with his strikeout total set at just three. While the New York Mets don't strikeout a lot, they do have a left-handed heavy lineup.
Koch's strikeout rate goes from 11.5% against righties to 15.7% versus left-handed hitters in his career, and he records an average of 5.40 strikeouts per nine innings against lefties. Our models are projecting Koch for 4.95 strikeouts over 6.0 innings against the Mets.
Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
Mitch Haniger Will Have MORE Runs, Hits, and RBI Than Xander Bogaerts (+100)
Bovada has an interesting matchup between Xander Bogaerts (-130) and Mitch Haniger (+100) in a runs, hits, and RBI prop, and with Bogaerts up against Felix Hernandez, our models are leaning on the underdog Haniger as the better play.
Bogaerts is only 2-for-10 lifetime against Hernandez, while Haniger has beaten up on left-handed pitching this season with a .359 wOBA and .364 BABIP over 82 plate appearances. Our models are projecting Bogaerts for just 1.65 runs, hits, and RBI, compared to 2.01 for Haniger.