Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Using the odds available at Bovada Sportsbook, here are three prop bets available tonight that are good plays based on our daily MLB game projections.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates
Zack Godley OVER 5 Strikeouts (-110)
Zack Godley has racked up eight strikeouts in each of his last two starts, and for Thursday evening, our models think he could once again have a solid strikeout total as he takes on the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Godley is heating up for the Arizona Diamondbacks in the strikeout department. Over his previous four starts, Godley is averaging a shade less than 11 strikeouts per nine innings, and even though the Pirates don't strike out a lot, our models project Godley for 5.76 strikeouts over 5.83 innings of work.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Anthony Rizzo OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (+115)
Anthony Rizzo may be leading the way among all players in the amount of appearances he's made in our prop bets, and our models are in favor of backing him tonight in his matchup with Matt Harvey.
Rizzo owns a .346 wOBA and .201 isolated power against right-handed pitchers this season. With left-handed hitters beating up Harvey to the tune of a .393 wOBA, our models project the Chicago Cubs' first baseman for 3.01 runs, hits, and RBIs.
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels
Tyler Skaggs OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Tyler Skaggs is averaging 6.9 strikeouts over his last nine starts, and he's sporting a career-best 25.9% strikeout rate in 2018. Despite this, Bovada has his strikeout total at just 5.5 on Thursday, and our models like him to top that.
As a team, the Toronto Blue Jays have a 23.0% strikeout rate, which ranks 13th-highest in MLB. The Jays rank 19th in the league with a .302 wOBA against southpaws, and our models think Skaggs will stay hot with 6.65 strikeouts.