Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Using the odds available at Bovada Sportsbook, here are three prop bets available tonight that are good plays based on our daily MLB game projections.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets
Seth Lugo OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Seth Lugo is sporting a career-best 27.3% strikeout rate this season, and as a starter, he has been pretty darn good for the New York Mets, posting a 29.9% strikeout rate in his starts. The right-hander has also been spectacular at home this season, holding hitters to a .205 wOBA over 109 batters faced.
With all this in mind, our models are bullish on Lugo tonight, projecting him for 6.82 strikeouts against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Judge OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (+100)
The New York Yankees' matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies and Vincent Velasquez is not going to be an easy one, but our models are projecting Aaron Judge to have some of the best RBI odds of the night.
With a .413 wOBA and .296 isolated power against right-handed pitching this season, one swing of the bat from Judge could win the over bettors some cash. At even money, it's a valuable wager, with our models projecting Judge for 2.95 runs, hits, and RBIs.
Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers
Kenta Maeda OVER 5 Strikeouts (-160)
Kenta Maeda didn't last long in his last outing against the Chicago Cubs, allowing three earned runs and walking five batters in 3.2 innings. However, Bovada has some serious chalk on the over tonight for Maeda's strikeouts, and it could be because the Los Angeles Dodgers are playing at home this time.
Even though Maeda doesn't pitch any better at home, his strikeout rate rises a touch more more than 2 percentage points -- up to 27.7% -- when he is pitching at home. Considering he is averaging 11.08 strikeouts per nine innings at Dodger Stadium, our models like Maeda for 6.36 strikeouts in just under 6 innings of work.