Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Using the odds available at Bovada Sportsbook, here are three prop bets available tonight that are good plays based on our daily MLB game projections.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles
Nick Pivetta OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Things didn't go well for us the last time we recommended Nick Pivetta and his strikeout prop. Pivetta has been removed early from his last three starts either because of injury or poor performance. However, if that changes Thursday, he could hold some great prop betting value.
The Baltimore Orioles have been very strikeout-happy this season with a 23.6% strikeout rate, and that increases to 24.4% against right-handers. Our models project Pivetta for 6.78 punchouts. Just cross your fingers he avoids a blowup inning.
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
James Paxton OVER 6 Strikeouts (-130)
The Los Angeles Angels have one of the league's lowest strikeout rates against southpaws at 19.8%, but they also own a .290 wOBA against lefties this season, which ranks 28th. So while they are unlikely to put up a lot of runs, they're also tough to strike out.
But James Paxton is one of the best swing-and-miss hurlers in the league, and he has collected nine or more strikeouts in four straight starts.
Our models project him for 7.1 strikeouts, making Paxton's posted strikeout total of 6 pretty darn appealing.
Justin Upton UNDER 2 Runs, Hits, and RBI (-135)
Not only are our models high on Paxton's strikeout potential, we're also low on the Angels' bats. Justin Upton is in for a tough matchup against the Seattle Mariners' lefty, which could make him a great fade at these prop odds.
Upton is batting just .203 against southpaws this season with a .267 wOBA over 78 plate appearances. With this in mind, our models project Upton for 1.74 combines runs, hits, and RBIs on Thursday night.