MLB
Overlooked and Undervalued: Three Starting Pitchers Who Deserve Your Attention
If you need starting pitching, here are three overlooked guys who can help your fantasy team.

In baseball, not every player is a home-run hitter, a defensive wizard, or a lightning quick base stealer. The thing is, most players don’t need to be.

What the hundreds of players who will never be named to an All-Star team get paid for is filling a role. Teams need players that make contact, have a patient eye, eat up innings on the mound, or any number of other non-glamorous, but necessary, attributes. Sure, these players often go rather unappreciated, but every team has them, and every team needs them.

This line of thinking applies to fantasy baseball as well. Over the course of such a long season, not every player you acquire (either through the draft, trades, or waivers) is going to be a stud. However, you don’t need them to be. The job of a good fantasy baseball general manager is to find enough solid, undervalued players to supplement the key-cogs of their fantasy roster. Sure, owning a five-tool weapon like "heatmap" courtesy of fanGraphs.

So after looking at the difference in his map from 2013 to 2014, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Quintana posts career lows in HR/FB rate and HR/9 as a result in this change of approach. His xFIP in 2014 is 3.37, and a factor of xFIP is adjusting a pitchers HR/FB rate to league average. Even if Quintana were to regresses closer to league average in that department (around 10%), he would still be outperforming his ERA.

Perhaps the biggest plus with Quintana comes with his durability. Through 403.2 big league innings, he has yet to hit the disabled list. At a time when pitchers are seemingly dropping like flies, a pitcher of his ability and durability should be owned in many more leagues.

Aaron Harang, Atlanta Braves

Why He's Undervalued

It’s quite easy to see why Harang was being totally ignored entering this season. He entered the year at age 35 coming off of an awful 2013 season where he posted a 5.40 ERA through 26 starts. Also, Harang only became a member of the Braves’ rotation through absolute necessity. Having lost Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen to injury, they had a desperate need for starters. Add in the fact that, like Quintana, he’s never been more than a mediocre strikeout pitcher, and it’s easy comprehend why he wasn’t on any draft boards.

The fact that he's still not owned in all leagues is a sign of disbelief by fantasy owners in his performance thus far. His ownership skyrocketed when he ripped off five consecutive starts allowing one or fewer earned runs, but plummeted back down when he got absolutely shellacked by the Marlins on April 30th. As it stands, he’s owned in 67.0% of ESPN leagues, a number that indicates to me that he is being vastly overlooked.

Why He's Valuable

Harang’s surface numbers are very good, but it’s his peripherals that show his performance isn’t a fluke. Evan Slavit did a great write up on Julio Teheran that incorporated some information on Harang’s 2014 performance. While it wasn’t an entirely glowing report on Harang, it’s important to remember that my goal isn’t to identify three All-Stars who are being overlooked because - news flash - those guys don’t exist.

Harang’s FIP and xFIP stand at an excellent 2.20 and 3.19, respectively. What accounts for the rather large difference between the two is that, as I explained earlier, xFIP adjusts a pitchers HR/FB rate to league average. While that isn't always fair - some pitchers have a lot of influence over their HR/FB rates - in Harang’s case, it's a necessary adjustment. His HR/FB rate is 2.9% in 2014 compared to 10.3% over the course of his career. The lowest number through any full season in his career was 6.3% in 2012, and even then that is double his mark this season. So it’s good to see that even when taking out the luck of his minuscule HR/FB rate, the advanced metrics still like him.

His BABIP this season in .331, well above his career .304 mark. This is despite a line-drive rate that falls right under his career figure, indicating that Harang may actually be a tad unlucky this season. When you’re unlucky and still rocking a 3.29 ERA, you get my attention.

YearK/9
20056.93
20068.3
20078.47
20087.47
20097.87
20106.61
20116.54
20126.56
20137.1
20149.73

A head-scratching area for Harang comes with his strikeouts. I said before that he’s just a mediocre strikeout pitcher, but he’s been borderline elite this season. As Evan mentioned in his analysis of Harang, his swing and miss rates have returned to above 10%, right around where they were in 2005-07 during his prime. Even then, Harang wasn’t striking out as many batters as he was this year. Color me pessimistic, but I refuse to believe Harang will maintain his strikeout pace. Even without the strikeouts though, he’s still valuable for the ERA and WHIP he will provide. Not to mention, he’s been a pretty durable starter over his past three seasons.

Ian Kennedy, San Diego Padres

Why He's Undervalued

Kennedy simply hasn't lived up to the promise he showed in 2011 when he posted a 2.88 ERA and 198 strikeouts over 222 innings. His 2012 numbers and advanced metrics showed he was pretty mediocre, and he struggled mightily in 2013. He battled with control issues last season, walking over one batter more per nine innings compared to his 2011 and 2012 seasons. Currently, Kennedy is in the midst of seeing his ownership rise, and is now owned in over 50% of leagues on ESPN. Still, he’s being too overlooked as he's considered a bit of a one-hit wonder in fantasy circles. Don’t let that senseless title fool you, because Kennedy can help you in 2014.

Why He's Valuable

The advanced metrics really like Kennedy this year. His FIP stands at 2.77, showing that perhaps he's actually pitching better than his 3.42 ERA would have you believe. He's cut his line-drive rate by 2.6% from last season, and it now stands at 20.7%, exactly his career average. Despite this, his BABIP is actually higher than it was last season (.295 vs. .307), something that I expect to change as the season progresses. His career mark of .285 may not be a realistic expectation, as that is weighed down by his .256 and .270 figures in 2010 and 2011, but his BABIP should certainly not sit any higher than it was last season.

Unlike the other two starters I’ve highlighted, Kennedy’s strikeout ability can be viewed as a plus. His career mark for K/9 is 8.05, a bit above league average. This season, his K/9 is a whopping 9.90. It’s unlikely he retains that number, as his swinging strike percentage is right around his career norm, but even when the strikeouts regress he’s still a plus in that area.

YearBB/9Zone%
20112.2349.50%
20122.3846.60%
20133.6242.80%
20142.3249.90%

Part of Kennedy’s struggles last season came in his inability to command the strike zone. His BB/9 was obviously much higher in 2013 than it was in 2011, 2012, and 2014, and was a fair bit above his career 2.96 mark as well. His zone%, which is the percentage of pitchers thrown within the strike zone, was at his career lowest in 2013. He lost command of his arsenal last year, but he seems to have turned the corner this season.

What you have with Kennedy is a guy who out pitched his ability one season, disappointed people with unrealistic expectations the next, lost his normally good command the following year, and was written off. However, Kennedy has regained his command looks a lot more like the pitcher we saw in 2011 than the one we saw in 2013. It may not lead to a 2.88 ERA, but it means he’s certainly worth a spot on your fantasy squad.

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