With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Eric Thames, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
FanDuel Price: $2,800
Eric Thames continues to be a great value option when the Milwaukee Brewers face a right-handed hurler. That's the case tonight as they're up against Tyler Mahle, and as the cherry on top, the game is at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Admittedly, Mahle isn't a bad pitcher. He's got a 3.97 SIERA with a 24.4% strikeout rate. But he's also carrying just an 8.9% swinging-strike rate, which tells us he's benefitting from some luck in the strikeout department, and the Milwaukee Brewers have a 4.94 implied total for this one. Also, Mahle is having a real hard time with lefties this year, giving up a .372 wOBA, 38.6% hard-hit rate and 42.1% fly-ball rate in the split. His strikeout rate against lefties is a mere 18.3%, compared to his 29.2% clip versus right-handers.
Thames has posted a .386 wOBA, 48.5% hard-hit rate and 41.2% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage this season. He was in the five hole the last time Milwaukee battled a righty, and Thames is the slate's third-best point-per-dollar play, per our models.
Evan Longoria, 3B, San Francisco Giants
FanDuel Price: $2,500
Evan Longoria has some pretty nice batted-ball numbers against lefties, recording a 46.7% hard-hit rate and 41.7% fly-ball rate in the split this year. He's up against southpaw Logan Allen tonight, and with Allen one of the slate's top arms, Longo shouldn't see too much ownership.
He's capable of popping a dinger, though. He also had a solid 43.9% hard-hit rate last year with the platoon advantage, and while the San Francisco Giants' 3.58 implied total limits Longoria to one-off territory, our projections have him as a top-five value bat tonight.
Franmil Reyes, OF, San Diego Padres
FanDuel Price: $3,000
On the flip side of that matchup, the San Diego Padres get to face Jeff Samardzija.
Shark has rebounded from his abysmal 2018 season, but when you have a 5.96 SIERA, it can't really get much worse. Even Samardzija's improvement this year has resulted in very pedestrian numbers -- a 19.9% strikeout rate, 9.3% swinging-strike rate and 4.81 SIERA. In 2019's small sample, he's allowing a 43.8% hard-hit rate and 40.3% fly-ball rate to right-handed bats.
Franmil Reyes is a modestly priced slugger with decent homer odds. The Franimal has a 49.7% hard-hit rate and 38.8% fly-ball rate this year, and he just put up a 50.9% hard-hit rate in June.
The Padres have a 4.42 implied total today, which doesn't stand out too much, even on a smaller slate. They are a nice under-the-radar stacking option, and Reyes should be a part of any San Diego stack.
Logan Forsythe, 1B, Texas Rangers
FanDuel Price: $2,400
Logan Forsythe is a cheap way to get exposure to the Texas Rangers for their matchup with lefty Jose Suarez. Forsythe has a 40.9% hard-hit rate against lefties this season, and while his .198 wOBA for the month of June is certainly an eyesore, Forsythe maintained a sparkling 58.6% hard-hit rate last month, being doomed by a .241 BABIP.
He hit sixth the last time Texas saw a lefty, and he should be in there tonight for this game at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Suarez is a guy we can attack as he's got a 5.26 SIERA in his limited MLB sample while allowing a huge 54.8% fly-ball rate.
Greg Garcia, 3B, San Diego Padres
FanDuel Price: $2,600
Greg Garcia started at second base over Ian Kinsler in both of the Padres' games over the weekend, hitting sixth in one and ninth in the other. Obviously, we'd prefer he's not at the bottom of the lineup, but regardless of where he hits, Garcia is an economical way to get access to San Diego for their date with Samardzija.
Garcia has seen almost all of his playing time this year against righties, holding a .350 wOBA in the split. Admittedly, his 20.2% fly-ball rate limits the upside here, but he's got a 13.5% walk rate with the platoon advantage, giving him a respectable floor.