Baseball is heating up, and there are plenty of DFS contests to choose from on FanDuel's main slate. While we have plenty of pieces geared towards guys you should target in your DFS contests, it's also important to avoid sub-optimal options who are overpriced and/or in tough spots.
Let's check out three players to consider fading on FanDuel's main slate for July 5.
Dakota Hudson, St. Louis Cardinals (SP)
at San Francisco Giants
FanDuel Price: $8,500
It's going to take a lot for me to consider rostering Dakota Hudson of the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. Yes, even against that lowly San Francisco Giants offense. Why?
So many factors. Let's start with this Giants offense, which is actually obliterating baseballs in recent weeks. Over the past 14 days, they clock in fifth in team wOBA (.346), and unsurprisingly, have lowered their strikeout down to 18.8% in the process. They are lapping the field in terms of hard-hit rate, too (47.9%).
But there's more. Despite his strong rookie season, Hudson does not strike many people out -- both his strikeout rate (16.0%) and swinging-strike rate (9.3%) are poor, leading to a 4.76 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA).
Fold in a heavy wind blowing out, and Hudson should be avoided.
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (OF)
at Houston Astros
FanDuel Price: $4,500
With Justin Verlander taking the mound for the Houston Astros tonight, how should we handle Mike Trout for DFS purposes?
That's simple -- you don't play him.
Verlander apparently is immune to Father Time. In his age-36 season, he has been brilliant yet again, rocking a 32.1% strikeout rate (a slate-best mark), and it's no surprise he has the third-lowest implied team total on the main slate (3.70 runs).
But his most impressive work has been against same-sided bats this season, which is an uh-oh moment for Trout. Covering 231 plate appearances, he has limited righties to a .261 wOBA and 27.8% strikeout rate.
And while those Crawford Boxes in left appear super tantalizing, this is a pitcher's park -- Houston ranks as the third-friendliest towards pitchers over the last three years, adding another factor to a low-scoring affair tonight.
Trout is often a great choice, but tonight could be one to take a breather from him.
Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers (OF)
at Pittsburgh Pirates
FanDuel Price: $4,800
Christian Yelich has very discernible home-road splits since he became a member of the Milwaukee Brewers -- so he promptly went out and homered twice at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. Despite that being a strong park for homers, can Yelich keep it up again tonight?
It could be a wee bit tougher. Yelich faces lefty Steven Brault of the Pittsburgh Pirates, and this is where the reigning NL MVP's numbers really hit the skids. Since the beginning of the 2018 season in this split, in 160 plate appearances, Yelich owns a 24.6% fly-ball rate and a fairly mediocre (at least by his standards) .840 OPS. Of Yelich's 51 extra-base hits this season, only six have come against lefties on the road.
The park won't do him any favors, either -- PNC Park ranks 21st in park factor and 27th in home run factor over the last three years, so Yelly will have his work cut out for him tonight. Pivot away and invest those dollars elsewhere.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.