When being contrarian in daily fantasy sports, there's a fine line between taking a calculated risk and being reckless. But differentiating your lineups from everyone else is the name of the game if you plan on taking down one of those highly lucrative DFS tournaments. Whether it's because of Vegas totals, other options at a given position, or some gem you've found that everyone is overlooking, we can always find potential under-owned plays if we look hard enough.
Here are three such players to consider branching out for on FanDuel's main slate.
Trevor Williams, P, Pittsburgh Pirates
FanDuel Price: $8,000
An eight-game slate to start our MLB week has several top pitchers on the mound and plenty of players who should be passed on.
Trevor Williams is not one of those top pitchers as most of the ownership should be centered around Shane Bieber, Jacob deGrom, and Aaron Nola, making Williams is a solid tournament option tonight. Let's be clear, Williams can't hold a candle to those pitchers when it comes to strikeout rate, since he is at only 17.6% this season.
But he comes in with a positive park shift in his favor since he is on the road to take the on the San Francisco Giants, who are terrible versus right-handed pitchers. In the spit, the Giants come in with an 82 wRC+ (27th in the league), a .163 ISO (25th), a 38.7% hard-hit rate (14th), and a 36.3% fly-ball rate (15th). As you can see, those numbers present little to no danger for Williams and with that great park factor behind him, he is in a good spot tonight.
Corey Dickerson, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
FanDuel Price: $3,000
The Philadelphia Phillies are in a good spot tonight versus Mike Foltynewicz, and we should look to attack him.
Philadelphia has an implied run total sitting at 4.50 and has a good chance at hitting the over on that. If we take a look at the slate overall tonight, there are a number of ballparks that are considered pitcher's parks, which leaves Philadelphia as one of the best options for hitters.
Against lefties, Folty comes into this game allowing a 5.93 xFIP, 2.16 home runs per nine innings, 48.8% fly-ball rate, and a 41.2% hard-hit rate. There is so much power and home run upside against Foltynewicz this season, we have to be targeting him with left-handed hitters.
Corey Dickerson should fit that mold tonight since he comes with a somewhat surprising .380 wOBA, .265 ISO, 40.9% hard-hit rate, and a 41.5% fly-ball rate versus righties. Dickerson has a very modest $3K price tag tonight and should be able to post fantasy points in what is a very solid matchup for him.
Matt Olson, 1B, Oakland Athletics
FanDuel Price: $3,700
The Houston Astros come in as -190 home favorites with Zack Greinke on the mound, which should have the Oakland Athletics' hitters going under-owned.
When we have an expensive pitcher like Greinke on the mound, we generally see lower ownership on the hitters opposing him, but this just means we are in a great spot for tournaments. The Athletics are a very good offensive team, and there is no reason we should be shying away from them tonight. Since joining the Astros, Greinke has been struggling, allowing 1.21 home runs per nine innings, a 39.7% hard-hit rate, and a super low 17.2% strikeout rate.
Greinke is a good but not great pitcher, who doesn't have a massive strikeout rate to be afraid of. If there is any time to get the Athletics at lower ownership, this could be the night, and a player like Matt Olson should be at the top of the list. He comes in with a .270 ISO, 53.2% hard-hit rate, and a 22.0% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio versus right-handed pitchers. Getting power in your lineup is great, but getting it lower ownership is even better, and that's what we should have in Olson tonight.