In daily fantasy baseball, success starts with nailing the starting pitcher spot in your lineup.
When compared to hitters, pitching performance tends to be much more predictable and stable throughout the course of the season. You know what you're getting from a top-level ace when you roster him: probably a dominant effort with only one or two implosions per season. In contrast, even the game's best hitters have days at the plate when they go 0-for-4.
As a result, lineup construction should begin with the starting pitcher. Each day we will highlight a starter to consider from each pricing tier, and we'll also look at one contrarian play for tournaments. Who should you consider on today's main slate?
High-Priced Option
Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
at Baltimore Orioles
FanDuel Price: $11,600
What seemed like an easy lock for the Cy Young award in the National League a few weeks ago, Walker Buehler has slightly opened that door ajar with two rough outings in his last four starts. Tonight could be a good spot to get him back on track.
Tonight's top-ranked hurler sporting a slate-best 29.5% strikeout rate, Buehler faces a Baltimore Orioles team that ranks seventh-worst in team wOBA (.305) and a 23.4% strikeout rate. The chances for a win look pretty strong, too -- we have the Los Angeles Dodgers installed as a moneyline -305 favorites, as Ty Blach takes the ball for the home team.
With such a tantalizing matchup, pay up for a big night from Buehler.
Mid-Priced Option
Zack Wheeler, New York Mets
vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
FanDuel Price: $8,300
Arguably the slate's most tempting game of the day from a pitching perspective, and sporting an over/under of just 8.0 runs, Zack Wheeler will duel with Zac Gallen in what should be a strong matchup.
The wheels on the Arizona Diamondbacks offense have fallen off a bit lately, as they clock in only 16th in team wOBA (.318) and fly-ball rate (35.1%). That's a large reason that Wheeler currently has the third-lowest implied team total of 3.83 runs.
While Wheeler has been a bit of a dud lately, averaging only 17.6 FanDuel points over his last five turns, expect a better effort tonight from the right-hander.
Low-Priced Play
Ryan Yarbrough, Tampa Bay Rays
at Texas Rangers
FanDuel Price: $7,400
Has anyone noticed how good Ryan Yarbrough of the Tampa Bay Rays has been?
Since the All-Star break, Yarborough has started 10 times, recording a 2.33 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over those innings. He's averaging nearly a whiff an inning, and the good times may continue to roll tonight in Texas.
The Texas Rangers have been horrible over the last month -- they've posted an ugly 34.1% fly-ball rate, and their 24.7% strikeout rate still provides plenty of upside that we want to roster.
For a very cost-friendly option, peep Yarborough.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.