The Atlanta Braves are kind of in a funk right now.
After finishing up an 0-8 west coast trip on Wednesday afternoon, the Braves are in the midst of their longest losing streak since April of 2010. And with the Washington Nationals’ walk-off victory over the Mets on Thursday afternoon, Atlanta enters Friday 4.5 games back in the NL East, at 58-56.
They own a run-differential of +3, which is only seventh-best in the National League, and are in a complete free-fall. And while their pitching has been relatively solid this season (their starters’ ERA of 3.44 and bullpen ERA of 3.28 are both 5th-best in the NL), their offense has been brutal, especially compared to last year (NL rank in parenthesis).
| Season | BA | OBP | SLG | HR | Runs | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | .245 (9) | .309 (8) | .369 (12) | 89 (11) | 426 (13) | 22.2 (13) |
| 2013 | .249 (T-8) | .321 (6) | .402 (2) | 181 (1) | 688 (4) | 22.6 (15) |
Especially notable are the power numbers, which were so good last year and have fallen off a cliff this year. They fell from 2nd to 12th in slugging percentage, 1st to 11th in home runs, and have seen their isolated power (ISO) fall from 2nd last year (.153) to 11th this year (.124).
So what’s going on here? Who is responsible for this drop-off?
| Player | 2013 HR | 2014 HR |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Upton | 27 | 19 |
| Freddie Freeman | 23 | 15 |
| Dan Uggla | 22 | 2 |
| Evan Gattis | 21 | 17 |
| Brian McCann | 20 | 0 |
| Andrelton Simmons | 17 | 5 |
| Jason Heyward | 14 | 9 |
| Chris Johnson | 12 | 8 |
Obviously, the 2014 home run totals are incomplete, but are meant to show the pace at which Atlanta players are going yard this year. The Braves are sorely missing the bat of nERDs this year in the negative range, meaning their bats are scoring fewer runs over a 27-out game than a league-average player. Simmons’ fWAR is almost entirely built on his legendary defense, and Johnson, who finished 2nd in the NL batting race last year at .321, is not surprisingly having a hard time duplicating that success.
our projections say the Braves still have a 21.3% chance of making the playoffs and an 11.8% chance of winning the division.
It’s not a slam dunk, but they’re still in the mix for both the NL East crown or one of the two wild cards.
As long as they start hitting the ball.