Until Tuesday's loss to the Chicago Cubs, the Milwaukee Brewers had spent every day since April 4th with at least a share of the National League Central lead.
But now, following Wednesday's defeat once again at the hands of the South Siders, the Brewers have lost seven in a row and have fallen two games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the Central. The Brew Crew appear to be in a free fall, having lost 10 of their last 12 after a brief five-game winning streak put them 2.5 games up on August 19.
However, the Brewers really haven't played all that well for a while now. After a 53-43 first half, they've gone 20-22 since the All-Star Break, with a 9-16 July and a 13-14 August. They're 0-2 to start September, while the Cardinals have won four in a row, and gone 23-19 since the All-Star break.
So what is causing the slide? Why are the Brewers losing ground so quickly? Most of the fingers can be pointed at a flagging offense.
| Time | Runs | HR | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full Season | 583 (3) | 136 (3) | .317 (4) | 97 (T-5) |
| 1st Half | 423 (2) | 94 (2) | .320 (3) | 99 (4) |
| 2nd Half | 160 (11) | 42 (5) | .310 (9) | 92 (10) |
| Last 14 Days | 38 (11) | 9 (T-8) | .316 (9) | 95 (10) |
| Last 7 Days | 14 (15) | 4 (T-11) | .261 (13) | 58 (13) |
The Brewers started the season strong, with only the Colorado Rockies scoring more runs than Milwaukee by the All-Star break. Since then, however, the offensive numbers have dipped sharply. They're only 11th in the National League in runs scored in the second half, and over the last seven days have scored the fewest runs in the league, just 14.
It's hard to win baseball games when you're averaging two runs a game.
| Player | 1st Half wOBA | 2nd Half wOBA | 1st Half wRC+ | 2nd Half wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Lucroy | .383 | .329 | 143 | 106 |
| Carlos Gomez | .386 | .315 | 145 | 129 |
| Scooter Gennett | .356 | .302 | 124 | 88 |
| Aramis Ramirez | .349 | .363 | 119 | 129 |
| Khris Davis | .337 | .356 | 111 | 125 |
| Ryan Braun | .373 | .310 | 136 | 93 |
| Mark Reynolds | .310 | .291 | 93 | 80 |
| Rickie Weeks | .320 | .367 | 100 | 132 |
Three regulars have performed better in the second half than they did in the first half, as gauged by weighted runs created (wRC+), including nERD -0.23 is 223rd in all of baseball, meaning a lineup full of Mark Reynolds would score 0.23 runs per game less than a lineup of league average players. It's one of the reasons Milwaukee was reportedly interested in trading for Colorado's our projections still give the Brewers a 58.3% chance to make the postseason and a 26.9% chance to win the NL Central. Only four NL teams have better odds of making the playoffs.
There is still work to do, but if the Brewers can just hang on, they could play their first postseason baseball since 2011's run to the NLCS.