A couple days ago, I did a piece wondering whether the Miami Marlins, who were 3.5 games back of the second NL wild card spot at the time, had a legitimate chance to make the playoffs. Then, on Thursday night, our projections have a 5.1% chance of reaching the postseason and a 1.5% chance of winning the division.
Obviously, those odds will increase exponentially if they sweep the Tigers. They'll be much worse if they get swept.
Starting Rotation
The rotation has been blisteringly good over the second half of the season, and particularly hot over the last month.
| Time | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 3.91 (8) | 3.45 (2) | 3.39 (1) | 1.27 (T-6) |
| Second Half | 2.91 (3) | 2.85 (1) | 3.19 (1) | 1.13 (2) |
| August | 2.57 (1) | 2.79 (1) | 3.39 (3) | 1.12 (T-1) |
| Last 30 Days | 2.27 (1) | 2.73 (1) | 2.91 (1) | 1.05 (1) |
The Indians have had the best starting staff in the American League over the last 30 days, and they've been one of the best since the All-Star Break as well. That's the main reason why they are 24-14 since the start of August.
Ace nERD of 2.23 - meaning Kluber would give up 2.23 runs less over a 27-out game than a league average pitcher - is second among all MLB pitchers. His success this year has been well-documented, and he's a leading candidate for the Cy Young Award. But it's the support of the other members of the staff that have gone a long way to keeping Cleveland in the playoff race.
| Name | nERD | rWAR | fWAR | W | L | GS | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Bauer | 1.51 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 4.12 | 3.82 | 4.08 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 1.21 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 2.97 | 2.36 | 2.71 |
| Danny Salazar | 1.07 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 4.19 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| T.J. House | 0.88 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 3.46 | 3.69 | 3.15 |
All four starters have been particularly tough over the last 30 days, with FanGraphs says Cleveland has the worst defense in the American League. They're dead last in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) at -74 and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). Which make it all the more incredible that their pitchers have been as successful as they are this season.
Favorable Schedule
The Indians are in a position to make a move. In addition to their three-game series against Detroit this weekend, they also still have three games left at home against the Royals, as well as a suspended game from August 31st in which the Indians were leading the Royals 4-2 heading into the bottom of the 10th. The Royals will get the chance to bat in that one, but that's a tremendous opportunity for Cleveland to pick up an easy game on Kansas City.
And outside of the teams they are chasing, the Indians don't play another team with a winning record the rest of the way. They get Houston for four games, Minnesota for three and finish up the season with three games at home against Tampa.
With just 17 games left, the odds are still against the Indians catching the Royals and Tigers. But with a little bit more offense and the continuation of a remarkable starting rotation, it's not unreasonable to think Cleveland could make the postseason for the second year in a row.
They'll get their chance starting Friday night in the Motor City.