17 years ago, the Baltimore Orioles clinched the AL East title and carried that momentum to the ALCS, losing to the Indians. The organization and franchise probably didn’t think they’d struggle to sniff the playoffs again until 2012, or not win the division title until this season. But here we are.

Coming into the season, the Orioles were definitely not the team everyone was focused on in the AL East. The Red Sox were riding high with their newly-shaved faces after their World Series win in 2013. The Yankees spent the offseason buying veterans to make up for their lack of a farm system. The Rays were getting praise for their pitching and ability to make a run with their low payroll. The Blue Jays were trying to figure out why they couldn’t win in 2013 with big names like FanGraphs' Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) statistic, Jones is a top-flight defensive outfielder. UZR factors in a players range, arm and errors in his performance to recognize how many runs above average a player saves. Jones is fifth in this category among all outfielders, and ranks fourth when just looking at outfielders arms, trailed closely by Markakis.

Baltimore has their MVP-caliber centerpiece with Jones roaming the outfield, and will rely on him when the playoffs roll around.

Ace-Less, Yet Effective Staff

The major critique of the birds has been their lack of a go-to guy on the mound. While FanGraphs' scale.

On top of his numbers, Cruz has provided great protection for Jones and has a tough out for any pitcher this season.

How Far Will They Go?

Although they're seventh as a team nERD at 0.55, they have the fourth-best chance to win the World Series according to our algorithms. The Orioles have a rock-solid lineup from top to bottom; the starting pitching is the only concern. If Tillman can lead his staff against the aces of other clubs, which is looking to be the Tigers in the first round, then the Orioles will go deep in the playoffs. It’s hard to say that they’d win the World Series, especially the way the Los Angeles teams are playing, but they should win in the division series.