Monday hasn't gotten off to the greatest start for MLB, with 10 more Marlins players and coaches testing positive COVID-19, leading to both their game against the Orioles and the Yankees-Phillies game getting postponed. But as of this writing, the rest of tonight's slate should go on as scheduled, still giving us a solid eight-game offering to break down. There's also some rain in the forecast, with Cleveland and Cincinnati looking like potential trouble spots.
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On that note, let's highlight some of the top options for today's FanDuel main slate. Below are tonight's projected starters with their 2019 stats. Opposing strikeout rate and wRC+ are last year's numbers against a given pitcher's handedness using active rosters, per FanGraphs.
| Pitcher | Salary | L/R | Opp. | SIERA | K% | BB% | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | $9,700 | R | ATL | 3.18 | 33.0% | 6.1% | 24.5% | 96 |
| Jon Lester | $8,600 | L | @CIN | 4.49 | 21.6% | 6.8% | 23.2% | 102 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | $8,000 | R | @TAM | 4.71 | 21.4% | 7.5% | 24.1% | 97 |
| Aaron Civale | $7,800 | R | CWS | 4.74 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 25.4% | 103 |
| Anibal Sanchez | $7,200 | R | TOR | 5.07 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 25.2% | 85 |
| Wade Miley | $6,800 | L | CHC | 4.80 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 21.9% | 93 |
| Josh James | $6,700 | R | SEA | 3.33 | 37.6% | 13.2% | 25.9% | 88 |
| Michael Fulmer | $6,600 | R | KAN | -- | -- | -- | 22.3% | 93 |
| Michael Wacha | $6,500 | R | @BOS | 5.08 | 18.5% | 9.8% | 19.7% | 103 |
| Trent Thornton | $6,500 | R | @WAS | 4.80 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 21.5% | 97 |
| Dylan Cease | $6,300 | R | @CLE | 4.60 | 24.9% | 10.7% | 22.2% | 96 |
| Mike Montgomery | $6,200 | L | @DET | 4.90 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 24.6% | 100 |
| Adrian Houser | $6,000 | R | @PIT | 3.91 | 25.3% | 8.0% | 20.4% | 94 |
| Steven Brault | $5,900 | L | MIL | 5.10 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 20.7% | 102 |
| Kendall Graveman | $5,700 | R | @HOU | -- | -- | -- | 16.3% | 129 |
| Josh Osich | $5,500 | L | NYM | 3.93 | 22.4% | 5.5% | 23.0% | 110 |
Let's check out the top spots on Monday's slate.
Pitchers
This shakes out as a fairly light pitching slate, with Tyler Glasnow ($9,700) clearly standing out up top. A forearm strain held him to 12 starts in 2019, but as the above numbers show, he was lights out when healthy. He threw 68 pitches in his last tuneup, so it might be overly optimistic to expect him to hit triple-digit pitches tonight, but 90 or so would still be enough to tap into that ceiling. It doesn't hurt that the Braves are a solid matchup for punchouts, too, and Tropicana Field is a pitcher-friendly venue.
The other key hurler tonight is Josh James ($6,700), who has strikeout upside we don't often see in this price range. Take last year's numbers with a grain of salt -- it came almost entirely out of the bullpen -- but he still projects for a stellar 28.9% strikeout rate from Steamer, so there's plenty to like. The double-digit walk rate could be an issue, of course, but when you toss in a date with the Mariners, he's an absolute steal at this salary. James should have around a full workload after throwing 82 pitches last week.
Hitters
New York Mets
The New York Mets will face Boston opener Josh Osich, followed by right-hander Zack Godley for the bulk of innings.
Osich is a 31-year-old lefty who's posted a 4.86 ERA over five MLB seasons. Godley showed promise in 2017, but he's gone in the wrong direction ever since and is coming off a dreadful 2019 campaign where he recorded a 5.27 SIERA, 17.2% strikeout rate, and 10.3% walk rate. It's easy to see why the Mets are looking at one of the slate's highest implied totals (5.54).
Outside of slugger Pete Alonso ($3,600), every other Mets batter is priced at $3,100 and below, making this an easy team to stack, as well. With Osich only expected to throw an inning or so, we shouldn't hesitate to roster any lefty sticks, and Godley wasn't effective against either side of the plate last year. Yoenis Cespedes ($2,600) seems healthy after slugging a home run in his first game and remains inexpensive for a guy who's produced a .261 ISO in a Mets uniform.
Boston Red Sox
We could have a high-scoring game in Boston, as the Red Sox should also be able to put up some runs on Mets starter Michael Wacha. The right-hander posted a modest 18.5% strikeout rate last year and has allowed a boatload of hard contact over the past two seasons (40.7% hard-hit rate). He induced more ground balls versus righties last year (49.8%), but that's perhaps the only minor negative for Boston's bats.
J.D. Martinez ($4,000) and Rafael Devers ($3,500) are great choices, and inexpensive lefties Andrew Benintendi ($2,700) and Mitch Moreland ($2,900) are easy to like, too.
Houston Astros
Kendall Graveman missed all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, and it's just his luck that his first start back will be against the Houston Astros. Reports have been promising out of camp, but it's obviously a big ask to expect Graveman to get through this lineup unscathed. While he was effective at getting ground balls before surgery (51.7% career rate), he also owns an uninspiring 15.0% career strikeout rate. Allowing contact to a team like the Astros doesn't sound like a recipe for success.
As always, the usual suspects from one through six in the order are in play, and Carlos Correa ($3,300) and Michael Brantley ($3,300) continue to remain low-priced. Kyle Tucker ($2,500) put up 34 dingers and 30 swiped bags in Triple-A last season, so he's an intriguing GPP play if he starts.
Washington Nationals
Not only is the temperature up into the 90s out in DC, but we have a solid wind blowing out tonight, too. Trent Thornton wasn't very effective in his rookie season, and the Washington Nationals ought to be able to take advantage of the hitting conditions off Thornton's minuscule 32.4% ground-ball rate.
Best of all, only Trea Turner ($3,700) has a salary over $2,900. Eric Thames ($2,600) is your best bet for a one-off after smoking right-handed pitching with a 47.3% hard-hit rate and 46.0% fly-ball rate in 2019.
You can also consider stacking the Toronto Blue Jays on the other side of this game, who also have a promising matchup against Anibal Sanchez.