We get another solid offering of pitchers on Thursday's main slate, and the New York Yankees figure to be one of the more popular stacks again. The Yankees, Royals, Angels, and Mets comprise the night's highest implied totals.
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On that note, let's highlight some of the top options for today's FanDuel main slate. Below are tonight's projected starters with their 2019 stats. Opposing strikeout rate and wRC+ are last year's numbers against a given pitcher's handedness using active rosters, per FanGraphs.
| Pitcher | Salary | L/R | Opp. | SIERA | K% | BB% | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | $10,700 | R | @MIN | 3.36 | 30.2% | 4.7% | 20.9% | 119 |
| Dinelson Lamet | $9,200 | R | @SFG | 3.61 | 33.6% | 9.6% | 24.5% | 89 |
| Jose Berrios | $9,000 | R | CLE | 4.28 | 23.2% | 6.1% | 22.2% | 96 |
| J.A. Happ | $8,600 | L | @BAL | 4.72 | 20.7% | 7.2% | 21.5% | 97 |
| Ross Stripling | $8,400 | R | @ARI | 3.75 | 25.1% | 5.4% | 21.6% | 96 |
| Dylan Bundy | $8,200 | R | SEA | 4.54 | 23.1% | 8.3% | 25.9% | 88 |
| Robbie Ray | $7,900 | L | LOS | 4.02 | 31.5% | 11.2% | 21.8% | 106 |
| Steven Matz | $7,800 | L | BOS | 4.47 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 19.9% | 111 |
| Max Fried | $7,700 | L | TAM | 3.83 | 24.6% | 6.7% | 26.4% | 102 |
| Brady Singer | $7,200 | R | @DET | -- | -- | -- | 25.5% | 81 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | $6,700 | L | @ATL | 4.11 | 20.8% | 3.6% | 23.9% | 107 |
| Ivan Nova | $6,300 | R | KAN | 5.16 | 14.1% | 5.8% | 22.3% | 93 |
| Kevin Gausman | $6,200 | R | SDP | 4.10 | 25.3% | 7.1% | 25.0% | 88 |
| Martin Perez | $6,100 | L | @NYM | 5.01 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 23.6% | 106 |
| Marco Gonzales | $5,900 | L | @LAA | 5.08 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 19.8% | 102 |
| John Means | $5,800 | L | NYY | 5.02 | 19.0% | 6.0% | 24.0% | 123 |
Let's check out the top spots on tonight's slate.
Pitchers
Dinelson Lamet ($9,200) has the highest 2019 strikeout of the slate and draws an excellent matchup against the Giants at run-suppressing Oracle Park. Lamet looked the part in his 2020 debut against the Diamondbacks, racking up 8 punchouts over 5.0 innings while allowing 1 earned run. He reached 80 pitches in that outing, so 90 or so should be expected tonight -- more than enough to keep piling up the punchouts.
Dylan Bundy ($8,200) is a pitcher we often attacked while he was with Baltimore, but he's also on the radar in a plus spot against Seattle. As a fly-ball pitcher, escaping homer-friendly Camden Yards should do him some good this year, and he sure looked good in his Angels debut, giving up 1 earned run over 6.2 innings with 7 punchouts and no walks. The swing-and-miss stuff has always been there -- he recorded a swinging-strike rate above 12% in each of the past two seasons -- and maybe the change in scenery helps him find another gear.
The one downside is that the Mariners often have quite a few left-handed bats in their lineup, and Bundy has struggled to generate strikeouts against lefties over his career. However, the overall lack of power from Seattle could also lead to a lot of lazy fly outs.
Ross Stripling ($8,400) was impressive in his first start, punching out 7 batters and allowing a single earned run over 7.0 innings. Even better, the Dodgers let him loose with 92 pitches, a mark he eclipsed only once in 15 starts last season. This outing did come against San Francisco, so it might be harder to match that ceiling against the D-backs, but he should have another solid score in store for us.
Max Fried ($7,700) has an intriguing matchup against the Rays but after only throwing 67 pitches in his first start, it's hard to trust him tonight.
Lastly, we can't move on without mentioning Shane Bieber ($10,700), who obliterated the Royals for 14 strikeouts last week. He probably won't repeat that feat against the mighty Twins, but on a slate lacking too many upper-tier arms, he deserves tournament consideration at what should be lower popularity.
Hitters
New York Yankees
The Bronx Bombers came through against Baltimore last night, and they ought to pile it on again versus southpaw John Means. The Yankees have the slate's highest implied total at 6.51 runs.
Much like Asher Wojciechowski yesterday, Means gives up loads of fly balls (50.0% rate in 2019), which doesn't bode well for him against this deep lineup. Right-handed batters really chewed him up last season, as he only mustered a 17.6% strikeout rate and 5.75 xFIP in the split. New York could very well have an entire lineup (or close to it) of righty sticks tonight, as well.
Giancarlo Stanton ($3,800), Aaron Judge ($4,100), and Gary Sanchez ($2,900) have consistently crushed lefties over their careers, with ISOs of .337, .272, and .287, respectively. Gleyber Torres ($3,100) has also found plenty of success against them since debuting in 2018 (.287 ISO).
Don't hesitate to use lower order value bats like Luke Voit ($2,800) and Gio Urshela ($2,600), too, as they also generate plenty of hard contact.
Kansas City Royals
Ivan Nova has the worst 2019 strikeout rate and SIERA of tonight's starters, and he performed poorly in his opening start against the Reds.
Nova has struggled against lefty sticks for years now, and his prior success versus righties dwindled last year, only managing a 14.3% strikeout rate in the split. He still got a decent number of grounders in same-sided matchups (48.7%), potentially lowering home run upside, but this is otherwise a great matchup for lefties and righties alike.
Jorge Soler ($3,700) is an easy inclusion after rocking a 16.9% barrel rate in 2019, and likely high order bats Whit Merrifield ($3,300), Adalberto Mondesi ($2,600), and Salvador Perez ($2,900) have power and/or speed upside.
Ryan O'Hearn ($2,300) and Franchy Cordero ($2,100) are fantastic lefty punts if they start. O'Hearn has hit fifth against right-handed pitchers, while Cordero has teased with some tantalizing Statcast power numbers in past seasons.
New York Mets
Martin Perez is a familiar name when it comes to stacks, and it looked like the same ol' Perez in his first start, conceding 4 earned runs over 5.0 innings to the lowly Orioles while getting just 2 punchouts.
He's posted a SIERA over 5.00 in four straight seasons, so there's no reason to expect anything different this time around. While Perez did up his strikeout rate in 2019, it still plateaued at just 18.3% with the same old results.
The right-handed bats on the New York Mets naturally move to the front of the line against the southpaw, with Pete Alonso ($3,900), Yoenis Cespedes ($2,600), Amed Rosario ($2,500), and J.D. Davis ($2,400) leading the way.
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels also find themselves facing a mediocre southpaw with a low strikeout rate in Marco Gonzales. He wasn't all that effective against either side of the plate in 2019, too, with a 13.0% strikeout rate versus lefties and an 18.4% mark versus righties. Houston predictably didn't have much trouble with Gonzales in his first 2020 start.
There are plenty of cheap bats to help you afford Mike Trout ($4,500) and/or Anthony Rendon ($4,000), including David Fletcher ($3,000), Shohei Ohtani ($3,000), Justin Upton ($2,700), and even old man Albert Pujols ($2,600). Pujols put up a .255 ISO against lefties in 2019 off a 36.5% hard-hit rate and 44.8% fly-ball rate.