We're treated to a plethora of fantastic pitchers on Thursday and deciding between them could be tricky in tournaments. The top-notch pitching leaves fewer desirable stacking spots, but the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers are among the teams with higher implied totals.
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And don't forget to take a listen to active rosters, per FanGraphs.
Jose Suarez is making his 2020 debut, so his 2019 marks are listed (noted in italics).
| Pitcher | Salary | L/R | Opp. | SIERA | K% | BB% | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | $12,000 | R | @PIT | 2.07 | 42.9% | 4.8% | 20.9% | 88 |
| Sonny Gray | $10,700 | R | @STL | 2.79 | 37.2% | 7.4% | 23.7% | 94 |
| Clayton Kershaw | $10,100 | L | @SEA | 2.80 | 28.1% | 4.7% | 23.2% | 105 |
| Dinelson Lamet | $9,400 | R | TEX | 3.40 | 32.1% | 7.1% | 24.8% | 88 |
| Jose Berrios | $8,700 | R | MIL | 5.01 | 21.6% | 11.7% | 24.0% | 100 |
| Adam Wainwright | $8,300 | R | CIN | 4.84 | 19.1% | 9.5% | 24.5% | 96 |
| Brandon Woodruff | $8,100 | R | @MIN | 3.35 | 29.1% | 6.8% | 21.2% | 115 |
| Kevin Gausman | $7,700 | R | LAA | 3.06 | 31.8% | 4.7% | 20.5% | 110 |
| Kyle Gibson | $7,500 | R | @SDP | 4.47 | 17.5% | 7.2% | 24.7% | 91 |
| Trevor Williams | $7,200 | R | CLE | 4.54 | 20.9% | 7.0% | 22.5% | 94 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | $6,800 | R | @BAL | 3.95 | 22.9% | 4.2% | 21.5% | 89 |
| Yusei Kikuchi | $6,500 | L | LOS | 3.77 | 25.8% | 9.7% | 21.9% | 102 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | $6,400 | R | BOS | 4.52 | 21.8% | 7.7% | 20.8% | 103 |
| Sean Manaea | $6,300 | L | ARI | 4.13 | 20.2% | 5.6% | 21.7% | 106 |
| Alex Young | $5,800 | L | @OAK | 3.42 | 25.4% | 5.1% | 20.9% | 113 |
| Jose Suarez | $5,500 | L | @SFG | 5.09 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 22.7% | 102 |
Let's check out the top spots on tonight's slate.
Pitchers
The top four pitchers in salary all deserve our attention tonight, but it's hard to argue against Shane Bieber ($12,000) for top overall honors in spite of that hefty salary.
Bieber has been absolutely lights out through five starts, as his massive 42.9% strikeout rate trails only Trevor Bauer among qualified starters, and his 19.8% swinging-strike rate tops all comers. In addition to the elite strikeout numbers, he's upped his ground-ball rate to 50.8%, which should help protect him from the long ball.
The Pittsburgh Pirates were a mediocre offense against righties in 2019, but they've been truly inept this season, with their active roster registering a 50 wRC+ in the split -- easily the league's worst mark. And while they were a tougher matchup for punchouts last year, they're striking out at a 24.4% clip in 2020, too.
It all sets up for Bieber to continue his strong play, and it's well worth ponying up that extra cash for his services.
Sonny Gray ($10,700) is also putting up some awe-inspiring numbers, and you'll want plenty of exposure to him in tournaments, as well.
Gray has benefited from easy matchups against several struggling offenses, so it's fair to expect his eye-popping strikeout rate to regress a bit, but he did post a 28.9% rate in 2019. Really, it's hard to fine many blemishes in his 2020 resume, and the Cardinals should make for a plus matchup.
Clayton Kershaw ($10,100) and Dinelson Lamet ($9,400) fall a tier below Bieber and Gray, and it's largely because they haven't been given the 100-plus pitch workloads of those two. Kershaw threw a promising season-high 91 pitches in his last start, while Lamet has hovered in the mid-to-low 80s in three straight.
Still, both are showing excellent peripherals, and they have appealing opponents in the Mariners and Rangers. Seattle was surprisingly decent against lefties in 2019, but their active roster owns a pitiful 65 wRC+ in the split this year.
I don't think you need to drop below these four, but if you're looking for a value play, then Kevin Gausman ($7,700) is a possibility. Gausman jumped to 106 pitches in his last start, and a 14.5% swinging-strike is a good sign for his delightful strikeout rate. While the Angels are a risky opponent, that's baked into the salary, and cool temperatures at Oracle Park should help keep the ball in the park.
Hitters
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have been one of the worst teams in the league, but most of the blame falls on an abysmal pitching staff. This team still packs some punch at the plate.
They're arguably the best stack of the evening against Asher Wojciechowski, who is showing similar peripherals to 2019 -- a campaign that resulted in a 4.92 ERA. Wojciechowski's long had trouble with home runs, allowing 1.90 per 9 innings over his career, and his Statcast data suggests more of the same moving forward.
The right-hander owns lackluster numbers against both sides of the plate, but the historical advantage goes to left-handed hitters. He has a career 5.61 xFIP in the split with a pedestrian 20.1% strikeout rate and 9.0% walk rate. That gives a boost to Rafael Devers ($2,800) -- one of the slate's top values -- along with Mitch Moreland ($3,300) and Alex Verdugo ($2,700).
J.D. Martinez ($3,500) hasn't been his usual self in 2020, but we're getting a nice discount if he's back in the lineup tonight. He's still producing a 40.3% hard-hit rate, so better days could be ahead.
Milwaukee Brewers
Once you get past the Red Sox, it's gets a little tricky to find the next best stack. The Los Angeles Dodgers have the night's highest implied total after Boston and are certainly in the conversation against left-hander Yusei Kikuchi.
However, despite a 5.28 ERA, Kikuchi has actually put up some intriguing numbers over three starts, with improvements in strikeout rate (25.8%), swinging-strike rate (12.2%), and ground-ball rate (57.5%). He also hasn't given up a single barrel yet. This isn't to say you should flat out fade a potent offense like the Dodgers, but the matchup may carry more risk than one might expect.
But everyone is familiar with the Dodgers' top bats, so let's instead discuss the Milwaukee Brewers, who have been a shocking disappointment at the dish but could get a lift against a struggling Jose Berrios.
Berrios has the name value, but he hasn't lived up to the billing, with his numbers down across the board. He's allowing a 49.3% hard-hit rate, and the barrels have been piling up, so the Brewers might be able to send a few balls into the outfield seats tonight.
Christian Yelich ($4,200) is a no-brainer, and Keston Hiura ($3,100), Justin Smoak ($2,600), and Ryan Braun ($2,400) are among those with power potential.
Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles qualify as a boom-or-bust option against Nathan Eovaldi, who's mixed in good and bad starts this year. Most recently, he was pummeled by the Yankees, and he's now given up five home runs the last two games. Dingers were an issue in 2019, and his 40.5% hard-hit rate and 41.7% ground-ball rate suggest more are on the way.
Boston's bullpen also hasn't been anything special, allowing the third-worst ERA among active rosters. While ERA estimators suggest some bad luck -- they've also endured a .330 BABIP -- their collective FIP and xFIP are mediocre, too.
As for the Orioles, they've been above average versus righties this year, and lineup mainstays Anthony Santander ($3,400), Renato Nunez ($3,200), and Rio Ruiz ($3,300) are among those dealing at the plate. Chance Sisco ($2,300) is a nice value if he's batting leadoff.