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On that note, let's highlight some of the top options for today's FanDuel main slate. Below are tonight's projected starters with their 2020 stats. Opposing team strikeout rate and wRC+ date now show this year's splits against a given pitcher's handedness using up-to-date active rosters, per FanGraphs.
| Pitcher | Salary | L/R | Opp. | SIERA | K% | BB% | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw | $10,600 | L | @SDP | 3.25 | 28.2% | 5.1% | 22.8% | 106 |
| Dinelson Lamet | $10,100 | R | LOS | 3.39 | 32.9% | 7.3% | 20.4% | 127 |
| Jose Berrios | $9,200 | R | @CWS | 4.33 | 27.1% | 10.8% | 25.2% | 110 |
| Dylan Cease | $7,500 | R | MIN | 5.72 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 25.3% | 111 |
| Touki Toussaint | $6,800 | R | @BAL | 4.49 | 27.5% | 12.8% | 22.3% | 105 |
| Jorge Lopez | $6,000 | R | ATL | 4.57 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 23.4% | 131 |
Let's check out the top spots on tonight's main slate.
Pitchers
This is not only a limited three-game slate to begin with, but our three best hurlers are all in difficult matchups. That top trio consists of Clayton Kershaw ($10,600), Dinelson Lamet ($10,100), and Jose Berrios ($9,200).
It's a toss-up between Kershaw and Lamet for the top overall option, but I find myself leaning towards Lamet for that 32.9% strikeout rate, and he's also coming off a season-high 111 pitches, which is the first time he's hit triple-digits this year. Hopefully, that's a sign of a longer leash moving forward, and while the Dodgers make for a brutal opponent, there are no easy spots on this slate.
Kershaw is coming off an uncharacteristically poor performance against the Diamondbacks of all teams, but he's otherwise had few missteps in 2020. However, while the Padres have been "worse" against lefties as far as platoon splits, this will still be a tough test against arguably the league's top overall offense. It's not ideal, but Kershaw has been putting up improved marks this season, including an elite 57.8% ground-ball rate.
Berrios' numbers pale in comparison to those two, and the White Sox certainly won't be a walk in the park, but he at least benefits from a plus matchup for punchouts. He's also the one with the most consistent workload lately, logging 101, 99, and 105 pitches in his last three starts. He places third of the group, but he did post 49 FanDuel points in his last outing against Chicago.
Hitters
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves are the obvious choice tonight, earning a robust 5.82 implied total against Jorge Lopez.
Lopez has been roughed up for a 6.38 ERA through 24.0 innings, which is almost exactly where he ended up at the conclusion of 123.2 innings in 2019 (6.33). He may have a 4.57 SIERA in 2020, but he had a similar SIERA last year, too, so we probably shouldn't expect drastic improvements anytime soon.
The one notable thing Lopez has improved is his ground-ball rate (52.0%), but that isn't enough to counter a middling strikeout rate and the hard contact he's allowing.
Historically, he's been more prone to home runs off left-handed batters, so Freddie Freeman ($4,300) in particular should be in your stacks, but this is one of those lineups where you can mix-and-match just about anyone. Guys like Adam Duvall ($3,000) and Austin Riley ($2,900) offer power upside on the cheap -- Duvall has two three-homer games in 2020.
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins were hitting like an average offense against righties for a while there, but their active roster has climbed its way up the ranks and now sports a 111 wRC+ that's much closer to what we expected entering the season.
Dylan Cease has the worst overall numbers of tonight's starters, so you can bet we want to attack him with Minnesota. Cease may have an improved 3.33 ERA compared to last year, but he sure doesn't deserve it, taking a massive step back in strikeout rate (15.4%) while continuing to struggle with walks (10.3%). He's also giving up a higher hard-hit rate (39.0%) and inducing fewer grounders (37.6%).
Cease has poor platoon splits against lefties and righties alike, but he struggled against lefties in 2019, as well, so give a bump to affordable leadoff man Max Kepler ($3,000). Otherwise, load up on the usual suspects like Nelson Cruz ($4,200), Miguel Sano ($3,200), and Josh Donaldson ($3,100).
Baltimore Orioles
I kept hoping for Touki Toussaint to turn his 27.5% strikeout rate into some strong DFS performances earlier in the season, but serving up walks and barrels left and right isn't a recipe for success.
Toussaint is now back after getting demoted to the alternate training site for a spell, and that gives us the opportunity to stack the Baltimore Orioles.
D.J. Stewart ($2,900) and Rio Ruiz ($3,000) will have the platoon advantage, with the former really crushing it lately -- all six of his home runs have come in the last eight games. Prospect Ryan Mountcastle ($3,500) has performed well since getting called up towards the end of August, and Renato Nunez ($2,800) has solid power, too.