It's been a rough few months for unfortunate picture. Don't click that link if blood makes you queasy. Then, last night, he loses the MVP race to 10-year, $300 million deal. That would be the richest contract in professional sports history. He could put Ace Hood to shame by waking up in 200.67 new Bugatti's with that dough. Yup, he'll be just fine.
Stanton just turned 25 last week, but he also dealt with injuries throughout his last couple of seasons. Is he worth $300 million? Let's find out.
Stanton's 2014 Season
We should qualify this discussion by saying that Stanton was other-freaking-worldly in 2014. Had he not missed the end of the year with a broken face, he may have given Kershaw more of a run for MVP.
In 638 plate appearances, Stanton hit 37 jacks and had a slash of .288/.395/.555 with a .403 wOBA. He beat American League MVP Fangraphs has this sweet thing where they will assign a value to a player based on what they would make in free agency. This can come in handy at times like these.
In his 2014 season, Stanton had an fWAR of 6.1. That translates to a Fangraphs salary of $33,400,000. That just-so-happens to be more than $3,000,000 higher than the average annual salary of this potential deal. How convenient.
This situation is eerily similar to unconscionable, indefensible, all-but-guaranteed mistake." Because Keri is a magician/genius, Cabrera validated those concerns in year one.
The main reason behind Keri's gripe was that the Tigers still had Cabrera under control for two more seasons when they signed the extension. That means they had two more years to evaluate where Cabrera would be prior to needing to extend him. He compared it to the Ryan Howard extension with the Phillies in 2010, which has also turned into a flaming poo-hole. Stanton, like those two, would not hit free agency for two more years.
There is a key difference here, though. Cabrera was about to enter his age-31 season. Stanton will be entering his age-25 season. That's six prime baseball-crushing years there, homie. As Keri said in the article, "If the Angels give Mike Trout a zillion years and dollars while he's still in his early twenties no one will complain." This potential contract may fall short of those figures, but Stanton is only two years older than Trout and fairly comparable across the board outside of base-running and defense.
And Stanton's defense did regress a bit in 2014. After his -7.8 UZR in 2013, he propped that back up to 1.6 in 2014. He'll never be an elite defender, but he's not a liability, and Cabrera was in his time at third base.
So, I say go for it, Miami. Lock up this luscious destroyer of worlds for the next decade. Build around him, Jose Fernandez, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna and see what happens. It has the potential to be so very pretty.
Things are different now for the Marlins than they were in 2007. They are trying to build around their 25-year-old star rather than send him packing. And if they do end up completing this deal, they will be making the right choice. Stanton isn't the type of guy you let walk away.