Well, just like we all predicted on Opening Day, Luis Castillo got shelled by the Cardinals, the Royals and Rangers scored a combined 24 runs, and the Rockies hung on to beat Clayton Kershaw and the defending champs. As they say, baseball is back!
But Shane Bieber came away with the top pitching performance of the afternoon and several value plays hit, so it's not like everything went off script yesterday. Onto the next one!
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On that note, let's highlight some of the top options for today's FanDuel main slate. Below are Thursday's projected starters with their 2019-20 stats. For now, I've decided to include 2019 due to the uncertainty of how much we can fully trust two months of stats from last year. Opposing team strikeout rate and wRC+ date now show splits against a given pitcher's handedness using up-to-date active rosters, per FanGraphs.
| Pitcher | Salary | L/R | Opp. | SIERA | K% | BB% | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Bauer | $10,000 | R | COL | 3.84 | 29.7% | 8.3% | 25.3% | 81 |
| Blake Snell | $9,500 | L | ARI | 3.58 | 32.6% | 9.0% | 21.0% | 102 |
| Merrill Kelly | $8,200 | R | SD | 4.62 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 23.4% | 103 |
| Dallas Keuchel | $8,000 | L | LAA | 4.45 | 17.9% | 7.5% | 20.2% | 101 |
| Pablo Lopez | $7,800 | R | TB | 4.28 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 24.6% | 102 |
| Andrew Heaney | $7,700 | L | CWS | 3.95 | 27.3% | 7.1% | 22.5% | 122 |
| Yusei Kikuchi | $7,500 | L | SF | 4.98 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 20.7% | 100 |
| Jesus Luzardo | $7,200 | L | HOU | 3.85 | 25.5% | 6.8% | 17.7% | 121 |
| Cristian Javier | $7,000 | R | OAK | 4.43 | 25.2% | 8.4% | 23.3% | 110 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | $6,800 | L | MIA | 4.20 | 20.2% | 4.0% | 22.7% | 103 |
| Johnny Cueto | $6,600 | R | SEA | 5.02 | 20.1% | 10.2% | 26.2% | 96 |
| Antonio Senzatela | $6,000 | R | LAD | 5.33 | 13.2% | 8.5% | 19.8% | 126 |
Let's check out the top options on Friday's six-game main slate, which locks at 7:10 pm ET.
Pitchers
With fewer games on the board and the number one starters all out of the way, we get a wider range of pitching talent tonight. Whereas you could talk yourself into any number of arms on Thursday, we get a much more narrow selection this time around.
Blake Snell ($9,500): It's pretty much Blake Snell and then everyone else, and with his salary also below $10,000, it wouldn't be crazy to just hit the lock button and worry about your bats. Only two pitchers crack a 29% strikeout rate from 2019-20 -- Snell and Trevor Bauer -- but the latter is pitching at Coors Field, making him a far dicier choice. The Rays notoriously limited Snell's pitch counts and innings last season, and it's hard to say how deep he'll go for the Padres, who may similarly have the big picture in mind. Still, Snell should rack up points on a per-inning basis against a middle-of-the-road Diamondbacks lineup that has a slate-low 3.43 implied total.
Trevor Bauer ($10,000): On a larger slate, we might automatically pass on any hurler at Coors, but with fewer upside plays, there's merit to taking a chance on Bauer in tournaments. Removing Nolan Arenado from the equation leaves this Rockies lineup looking even more bare-bones these days, and unlike Snell, volume shouldn't be a concern for Bauer. The mercurial right-hander hasn't exactly been consistent from year to year, but if you mostly buy into his latest numbers in 2020, a 2.94 SIERA, 36.0% strikeout rate, and 6.1% walk rate are mighty appealing. While it remains to be seen what the latest version of Bauer will look like, I'm willing to take a few shots in tournaments to find out.
Pablo Lopez ($7,800): As a young up-and-comer, Pablo Lopez is an example of someone who isn't just the sum of his past two campaigns, and he deserves a closer look. Lopez has been incrementally improving his punchouts every season since debuting in 2018, and over 11 starts last year, Lopez posted a 3.98 SIERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, and 7.5% walk rate. The strikeouts were supported by a 12.1% swinging-strike rate, and it doesn't hurt that he also upped his ground-ball rate to 52.2%. Many analysts are bullish on Lopez, and he could be worth a speculative add to your list against a Tampa Bay team that doles out plenty of punchouts. Keep an eye on how many lefties are in the Rays' lineup, though, as Lopez was lights out against right-handed bats in 2020 (36.0% strikeout rate) compared to lefties (14.7%).
Stacks
Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers are the obvious choice at Coors again tonight, but this time their matchup gets that much easier against Antonio Senzatela. They have a massive 6.81 implied total that runs laps around everyone else, so there's a good chance they're the most popular stack by a wide margin. As we saw on Opening Day, strange things happen on a near-nightly basis in baseball, but it'll be hard to fade these Dodgers bats.
Regardless of what you choose to do, there's no question that they could smash here. Senzatela has a bottom-of-the-barrel 13.2% strikeout rate and is only marginally better against righties compared to lefties. A high ground-ball rate is the only thing he really has going for him, but that's hardly enough to take us off one of the top lineups in the league. Try to fit in the star left-handed bats, but really, just about anyone in this lineup will be fair game.
San Diego Padres: It may look like I'm just copy-and-pasting the same offenses from yesterday, but hey, we're going to be targeting the Dodgers and Padres a whole bunch this year!
The Padres are the only other team with an implied total over five (5.07), and they're up against Arizona's Merrill Kelly. There isn't anything notable across the board for Kelly, and as a right-hander, he's predictably been less effective versus lefty sticks, posting a 4.69 xFIP and 18.0% strikeout rate in the split since debuting in 2019. He did post better numbers over five 2020 starts, but that isn't enough to sway us against this San Diego juggernaut.
Much like the Dodgers, you can probably stack most of this lineup, but the lefty bats of Jake Cronenworth ($2,600) and Eric Hosmer ($3,500) get a boost here.
Seattle Mariners: It gets pretty murky after the top two offenses, which is what makes it that much harder to fade the Dodgers and Padres. But the next-best thing could actually be Seattle against Johnny Cueto.
We've seen limited innings from Cueto the last few years due to Tommy John surgery, so he's a case where it may be best to just look at his 2020 numbers. He's never been much of a strikeout pitcher, and with roughly a 20% strikeout right against either side of the plate last year, so we don't have to be too picky about our bats.
The Mariners are a low-salaried lineup, making them easy to pair with Los Angeles or San Diego, too.
Mitch Haniger ($3,100) is a strong option out of the leadoff spot, while Evan White ($3,000) exhibited some promising pop last year (14.1% barrel rate). Ty France ($2,600) is one of the better values as the assumed number-two hitter. Cueto posted a 5.10 xFIP versus lefties last year, so Kyle Seager ($3,400) can take advantage of the split.
Others to Consider: Oakland Athletics, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox