Wednesday's nine-gamer isn't quite the pitching bonanza we saw yesterday, with one guy standing out above the rest. On the other hand, there are some hefty implied totals for several teams, potentially making this a more fruitful day for opposing offenses.
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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.
Pitchers
Tyler Glasnow ($10,700): When you combine both talent and matchup, you won't find anyone better than Glasnow on this slate. The Tampa Bay right-hander is coming off a rough outing versus Toronto, but that can certainly be forgiven against such a difficult opponent, and he gets a far easier draw versus Kansas City tonight. The Royals' active roster comes in with a middling 91 wRC+ against righties and possess one of the lowest implied totals on the board (2.94). Although the Royals are a middle-of-the-road matchup for strikeouts, Glasnow doesn't need a whole lot of help when it comes to punchouts, boasting a 36.0% strikeout rate.
Trevor Bauer ($11,500): Bauer checks in with pretty similar numbers as Glasnow, rocking a 2.78 SIERA, 36.2% strikeout rate, and 7.4% walk rate. However, not only does he have the higher salary, but he has to work his way through a Houston lineup with a 110 wRC+ and minuscule 18.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching. While that gives Bauer a far tougher path towards reaching his ceiling, his substantial workload gives him a boost, as he's thrown 113 or more pitches in four of his last five starts, including a season-high 126 last week.
Mike Minor ($7,200): In his last start, Minor's final fantasy score was disappointing in a plus spot versus the Tigers, but he did rack up eight strikeouts, so the potential was there for more. He has another golden opportunity to pile up the whiffs, this time against the Rays, who are striking out at a 29.8% clip versus southpaws. The results haven't been there for Minor this season, but he has a respectable 4.00 SIERA and 25.1% strikeout rate, and his high fly-ball rate shouldn't hurt him as much in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field.
Others to Consider: German Marquez ($8,800)
Stacks
Boston Red Sox: Perhaps due in part to a dip in velocity, Drew Smyly simply hasn't been able to duplicate his success from 2020 this season, resulting in a pedestrian 4.57 SIERA and 20.8% strikeout rate. He's coming off a pair of solid outings, but the Brewers and Pirates aren't exactly world-beaters. On the other hand, the Red Sox have been one of the top offenses in baseball.
Smyly has particularly struggled against righties, producing a 5.75 xFIP, 16.0% strikeout rate, and 10.1% walk rate in the split. He's also getting roughed up by the long ball -- a common issue in his career -- with 8 of his 11 home runs coming off right-handed sticks.
This is a prime spot for J.D. Martinez ($4,200) and Xander Bogaerts ($3,800) to thrive, and the usual value righties can help fit them in between leadoff man Enrique Hernandez ($3,000) and cheap lower-order power bats like Hunter Renfroe ($2,200) and Bobby Dalbec ($2,300). Danny Santana ($2,700) has been getting playing time lately, and he's demonstrated some pop and speed in the past.
Smyly is still tough on lefties (35.0% strikeout rate), so they're secondary plays, but he's giving up dingers and hard contact to them, as well, so you don't need to rule them out completely.
Washington Nationals: Jeff Hoffman has escaped Coors Field in 2021, and while his results with the Reds have been better, the underlying numbers suggest otherwise. Specifically, he ought to see a major course correction versus left-handed batters, where he's showing a brutal 6.08 xFIP, 15.4% strikeout rate, and 16.5% walk rate.
This means we can line up the usual slugging trio of Juan Soto ($4,000), Kyle Schwarber ($3,900), and Josh Bell ($3,300). Although Bell is back to hitting too many grounders these days, he's still making a boatload of hard contact and has solid .198 ISO.
Hoffman's shown far better peripheral marks against righties, but he does have a suspect history in the split and doesn't get many grounders, leaving some potential for home runs. Trea Turner ($3,800) is always in play, of course, while Starlin Castro ($2,200) continues to be a value as the regular number-five hitter.
Cincinnati Reds: Joe Ross is scuffling yet again this season with a 5.72 ERA, and he hasn't finished a campaign with an ERA below 5.00 since 2016. He's having a difficult time with both sides of the plate, resulting in a 4.74 SIERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, and 10.2% walk rate. He's yet another guy struggling to keep the ball in the park, coughing up 2.06 dingers per nine innings.
The Reds have been a pretty potent offense in 2021, with Nick Castellanos ($4,000) and Jesse Winker ($3,900) both crushing it this season, and Eugenio Suarez ($2,600) and Tyler Naquin ($2,900) displaying nice power. Injuries have left the bottom half of the order lacking, but they do come in at bottom-of-the-barrel salaries -- the other four batters are all at $2,300 and below.
Others to Consider: New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Indians, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres